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Stepwise regression

In statistics, stepwise regression is a method of fitting regression models in which the choice of predictive variables is carried out by an automatic procedure. In each step, a variable is considered for addition to or subtraction from the set of explanatory variables based on some prespecified criterion. Usually, this takes the form of a forward, backward, or combined sequence of F-tests or t-tests. The frequent practice of fitting the final selected model followed by reporting estimates and confidence intervals without adjusting them to take the model building process into account has led to calls to stop using stepwise model building altogether or to at least make sure model uncertainty is correctly reflected. Alternatives include other model selection techniques, such as adjusted R2, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, Mallows's Cp, PRESS, or false discovery rate. The main approaches for stepwise regression are: Forward selection, which involves starting with no variables in the model, testing the addition of each variable using a chosen model fit criterion, adding the variable (if any) whose inclusion gives the most statistically significant improvement of the fit, and repeating this process until none improves the model to a statistically significant extent. Backward elimination, which involves starting with all candidate variables, testing the deletion of each variable using a chosen model fit criterion, deleting the variable (if any) whose loss gives the most statistically insignificant deterioration of the model fit, and repeating this process until no further variables can be deleted without a statistically significant loss of fit. Bidirectional elimination, a combination of the above, testing at each step for variables to be included or excluded. A widely used algorithm was first proposed by Efroymson (1960). This is an automatic procedure for statistical model selection in cases where there is a large number of potential explanatory variables, and no underlying theory on which to base the model selection.

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