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Concept
Uncertain geographic context problem
Summary
The uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP) is a source of statistical bias that can significantly impact the results of spatial analysis when dealing with aggregate data. The UGCoP is very closely related to the Modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), and like the MAUP, arises from how we divide the land into areal units. It is caused by the difficulty, or impossibility, of understanding how phenomena under investigation (such as people within a census tract) in different enumeration units interact between enumeration units, and outside of a study area over time. It is particularly important to consider the UGCoP within the discipline of time geography, where phenomena under investigation can move between spatial enumeration units during the study period. Examples of research that needs to consider the UGCoP include food access and human mobility.
The uncertain geographic context problem, or UGCoP, was first coined by Dr. Mei-Po Kwan in 2012. The problem is highly related to the ecological fallacy, edge effect, and Modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in that, it relates to aggregate units as they apply to individuals. The crux of the problem is that the boundaries we use for aggregation are arbitrary and may not represent the actual neighborhood of the individuals within them. While a particular enumeration unit, such as a census tract, contains a person's location, they may cross its boundaries to work, go to school, and shop in completely different areas. Thus, the geographic phenomena under investigation extends beyond the delineated boundary . Different individuals,or groups may have completely different activity spaces, making an enumeration unit that is relevant for one person meaningless to another. For example, a map that aggregates people by school districts will be more meaningful when studying a population of students than the general population. Traditional spatial analysis, by necessity, treats each discrete areal unit as a self-contained neighborhood and does not consider the daily activity of crossing the boundaries.
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