Online Collaborative Prediction of Regional Vote Results

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Learning Self-Exciting Temporal Point Processes Under Noisy Observations

Understanding the diffusion patterns of sequences of interdependent events is a central question for a variety of disciplines. Temporal point processes are a class of elegant and powerful models of such sequences; these processes have become popular across ...

EPFL2021

Validating model-based data interpretation methods for quantification of reserve capacity

Ian Smith, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham Pai

Optimal performance of civil infrastructure is an important aspect of liveable cities. A judicious combination of physics-based models with monitoring data in a validated methodology that accounts for uncertainties is explored in this paper. This methodolo ...

2021

A Variational Inference Approach to Learning Multivariate Wold Processes

Patrick Thiran, Matthias Grossglauser, Negar Kiyavash, Seyed Jalal Etesami, William Trouleau

Temporal point-processes are often used for mathematical modeling of sequences of discrete events with asynchronous timestamps. We focus on a class of temporal point-process models called multivariate Wold processes (MWP). These processes are well suited t ...

MICROTOME PUBLISHING2021

Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models

Prateek Bansal, Rico Krüger

Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Mont ...

2021

Technologizing Democracy or Democratizing Technology? A Layered-Architecture Perspective on Potentials and Challenges

Bryan Alexander Ford

While technology is often claimed to be “democratizing”, the technologizing of society has more often yielded undemocratic or even anti-democratic outcomes. Is technology fundamentally at odds with democracy, or is it merely a rich and infinitely-adaptable ...

University of Chicago Press2021

Probabilistic and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification of deterministic and stochastic differential equations

Giacomo Garegnani

In this thesis we explore uncertainty quantification of forward and inverse problems involving differential equations. Differential equations are widely employed for modeling natural and social phenomena, with applications in engineering, chemistry, meteor ...

EPFL2021

Adaptive Path Interpolation Method for Sparse Systems: Application to a Censored Block Model

Nicolas Macris, Jean François Emmanuel Barbier, Chun Lam Chan

Recently, a new adaptive path interpolation method has been developed as a simple and versatile scheme to calculate exactly the asymptotic mutual information of Bayesian inference problems defined on dense factor graphs. These include random linear and gen ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2021

The probability of intransitivity in dice and close elections

Jan Hazla

We study the phenomenon of intransitivity in models of dice and voting. First, we follow a recent thread of research for n-sided dice with pairwise ordering induced by the probability, relative to 1/2, that a throw from one die is higher than the other. We ...

2020

Bayesian modeling of brain function and behavior

Maya Anna Jastrzebowska

The application of Bayesian modeling techniques is increasingly common in neuroscience due to the coherent and principled way in which the paradigm deals with uncertainty. The Bayesian framework is particularly valuable in the context of complex, ill-posed ...

EPFL2020

Rapid Recalibration of Peri-Personal Space: Psychophysical, Electrophysiological, and Neural Network Modeling Evidence

Olaf Blanke, Bruno Herbelin, Tommaso Enrico Bertoni, Andrea Serino, Jean-Paul Noel, Elisa Pellencin

Interactions between individuals and the environment occur within the peri-personal space (PPS). The encoding of this space plastically adapts to bodily constraints and stimuli features. However, these remapping effects have not been demonstrated on an ada ...

2020

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