Publications related to A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

How Integrated are Credit and Equity Markets? Evidence from Index Options

Pierre Collin Dufresne, Jan Benjamin Junge

We study the extent to which credit index (CDX) options are priced consistent with S&P 500 (SPX) equity index options. We derive analytical expressions for CDX and SPX options within a structural credit-risk model with stochastic volatility and jumps using ...

Wiley2024

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Greening the Swiss National Bank's Portfolio

Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Eric Jondeau

Central banks are increasingly concerned about climate-related risks and want to ensure that the financial system is resilient to them. As they integrate these risks into financial stability monitoring, they also discuss how to apply environmental criteria ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

Challenging the Assumptions: Rethinking Privacy, Bias, and Security in Machine Learning

Bogdan Kulynych

Predictive models based on machine learning (ML) offer a compelling promise: bringing clarity and structure to complex natural and social environments. However, the use of ML poses substantial risks related to the privacy of their training data as well as ...

EPFL2023

Bayes Security: A Not So Average Metric

Carmela González Troncoso, Giovanni Cherubin

Security system designers favor worst-case security metrics, such as those derived from differential privacy (DP), due to the strong guarantees they provide. On the downside, these guarantees result in a high penalty on the system's performance. In this pa ...

IEEE2023

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

A landmark environmental law looks ahead

Devis Tuia

In late December 1973, the United States enacted what some would come to call “the pitbull of environmental laws.” In the 50 years since, the formidable regulatory teeth of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) have been credited with considerable successes, ob ...

American Association for the Advancement of Science2023

Numerical simulation of the fate, transport and public health risks of enteric viruses in Lake Geneva

Chaojie Li

Lakes are a fundamental feature of nature with brilliance, profoundness and complexity. Various of physical, chemical and biological changes take place three dimensionally in deep lakes, regulated by complicated boundary conditions. To understand and predi ...

EPFL2023

Peak Value-at-Risk Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations using Occupation Measures

Matteo Raphael Tacchi

This paper proposes an algorithm to upper-bound maximal quantile statistics of a state function over the course of a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) system execution. This chance-peak problem is posed as a nonconvex program aiming to maximize the Va ...

IEEE2023