Dampened expectations in the Phillips Curve: A note

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Financial Stability and the Macroeconomy : the Role of Bank Liquidity Regulation and Deposit Insurance

Corinne Dubois

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 drew attention to the essential role of banks for the macroeconomy and to the importance of having a resilient financial sector. A vulnerability in the financial sector spills over to the real economy and can drive it into ...

EPFL2018

Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

Luisa Lambertini

This paper explores the transmission of "news shocks" in a model of the housing market and shows that anticipated signals or beliefs of future macroeconomic developments can generate boom-bust cycles in the housing market and lead to business cycle fluctua ...

2017

Asset Pricing When 'This Time Is Different'

Pierre Collin Dufresne

Recent evidence suggests that younger people update beliefs in response to aggregate shocks more than older people. We embed this generational learning bias in an equilibrium model in which agents have recursive preferences and are uncertain about exogenou ...

Oxford Univ Press Inc2017

Mortgage Default in an Estimated Model of the U.S. Housing Market

Luisa Lambertini, Victoria Nuguer, Pinar Uysal

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortg ...

2017

Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications

Pierre Collin Dufresne

Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumpti ...

American Economic Association2016

Financial Frictions within the Macroeconomy : Policy Analysis from an Empirical and Theoretical Perspective

Victoria Nuguer

Financial factors are central to the recent economic crisis. Most macroeconomic models treat banks and financial intermediation as a veil. These models are unable to account for the recent financial crisis and they cannot be used for policy evaluation. Fin ...

EPFL2014

Macroeconomic conditions and a firm's investment decisions

Michi Nishihara

We propose a model of a firm's reversible investment decision with macroeconomic conditions based on optimal switching of a diffusion regime. The switching costs and the cash flow generated from the firm depend on a business cycle alternating via a Markov ...

Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science2014

Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

Luisa Lambertini

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against house-price and credit cycles. We rely on a model that features Borrowers and Savers and allows for over-borrowing induced by news-shock-driven cycles. We fi ...

Elsevier2013

Expectation-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market: Evidence from Survey Data

Luisa Lambertini

Using a vector-autoregression (VAR) model and data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence on the importance of news and consumers' beliefs for housing-market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations. We document that innovation ...

2013

Geomorphic signatures on brutsaert base flow recession analysis

Andrea Rinaldo, Marc Parlange, Enrico Bertuzzo, Steven Vincent Weijs, Raphaël Mutzner, Serena Ceola, Ludovico Nicotina, Nevena Tomasic

This paper addresses the signatures of catchment geomorphology on base flow recession curves. Its relevance relates to the implied predictability of base flow features, which are central to catchment-scale transport processes and to ecohydrological functio ...

American Geophysical Union2013

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