Modeling the Pandemic: Challenges and Responses

Description

This lecture delves into the complexities of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring the challenges and hopes associated with building accurate models. The instructors discuss the difficulties in data collection, such as ascertainment bias, and the importance of utilizing various data sources, from public to private. They analyze the impact of different lockdown measures and the community response to rising case numbers. Through stochastic and multinomial models, they aim to predict the spread of the virus and manage hospital logistics effectively. The lecture also covers the use of Google and Apple mobility data to understand changes in human activity during the pandemic.

Official source

https://mediaspace.epfl.ch/media/0_jiu77te5

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Pandemic

A pandemic (paen'dEmIk ) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide. Throughout human history, there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as smallpox.

Influenza pandemic

An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza virus that spreads across a large region (either multiple continents or worldwide) and infects a large proportion of the population. There have been six major influenza epidemics in the last 140 years, with the 1918 flu pandemic being the most severe; this is estimated to have been responsible for the deaths of 50–100 million people. The most recent, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, resulted in under 300,000 deaths and is considered relatively mild.

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is a global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified in an outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. Attempts to contain it there failed, allowing the virus to spread to other areas of Asia and later worldwide in 2020. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020.

AT&T Mobility

AT&T Mobility LLC, also known as AT&T Wireless and marketed as simply AT&T, is an American telecommunications company. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of AT&T Inc. and provides wireless services in the United States. AT&T Mobility is the largest wireless carrier in the United States, with 217.4 million subscribers at the end of Q4 2022. The company is headquartered in Brookhaven, Georgia. Originally known as Cingular Wireless (a joint venture between SBC Communications and BellSouth) from 2000 to 2007, the company acquired the old AT&T Wireless in 2004; SBC later acquired the original AT&T and adopted its name.

1957–1958 influenza pandemic

The 1957–1958 Asian flu pandemic was a global pandemic of influenza A virus subtype H2N2 that originated in Guizhou in Southern China. The number of excess deaths caused by the pandemic is estimated to be 1–4 million around the world (1957–1958 and probably beyond), making it one of the deadliest pandemics in history. A decade later, a reassorted viral strain H3N2 further caused the Hong Kong flu pandemic (1968–1969). The first cases were reported in Guizhou of southern China, in 1956 or in early 1957.