Development prospects of China's shale gas resources in light of global warming

Before 2013, it was widely believed that China's shale gas resources could radically alter the dynamics of supply for the world's biggest energy consumer, and there would be a shale gas boom in China, for two major reasons: China has a policy of encouraging gas use to replace coal to reduce its carbon intensity, and Chinese recoverable resources of shale gas are estimated to be the world's largest. However, the Chinese government is under a dual pressure caused by global warming: addressing its growing water scarcity; and reducing its carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP. The exacerbation of water shortage will become a significant barrier for hydraulic fracturing to recover shale gas; and leakage of methane gas from the fracking process may even form a greater carbon footprint than conventional natural gas. Through comparisons of shale gas developing situations between China, Europe and the U.S., this research pointed out that China is difficult to replicate the previous success of shale gas in the U.S., mainly due to the oligopolistic structure in Chinese gas industry; current nonmarket-based pricing system; and uncertainty of shale gas production decline rate. That's why in the current situation, China is experiencing serious bottlenecks in the development of shale gas, and that so-called "shale gas revolution" is overly optimistic, or even just a speculative bubble. Therefore, how to balance the pressures of global warming and inner demands of shale gas, and strengthen enforcement to curb speculative bubbles of shale gas should be carefully considered by China as it puts in place a sound framework governing shale gas and minimizing the risk.