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Concept
Effects of climate change on agriculture
Summary
The effects of climate change on agriculture can result in lower crop yields and nutritional quality due to drought, heat waves and flooding as well as increases in pests and plant diseases. Climate change impacts are making it harder for agricultural activities to meet human needs. The effects are unevenly distributed across the world and are caused by changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels due to global climate change. In 2019, millions were already suffering from food insecurity due to climate change. Further, the predicted decline in global crop production is 2% – 6% with each decade. In 2019 it was predicted that food prices would rise by 80% by 2050. This will likely lead to increased food insecurity, disproportionally affecting poorer communities. A 2021 study estimated that the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production tripled over the last 50 years in Europe – from losses of 2.2% during 1964–1990 to losses of 7.3% in 1991–2015.
Direct impacts from changing weather patterns are caused by rising temperatures, heat waves and changes in rainfall (including droughts and floods). Increased atmospheric levels has led to higher crop yields (due to fertilization) but has also resulted in reduced nutritional value of crops (lower levels of micronutrients). Climate driven changes in pests, plant diseases and weeds can also result in lower crop yields and nutritional value. Losses of agricultural land due to sea level rise is an indirect result of climate change. However, more arable land may become available as frozen land thaws, though melting glaciers which could result in less irrigation water being available. Other impacts include erosion and changes in soil fertility and the length of growing seasons. Negative impacts on food safety and losses caused by fungi, leading to mycotoxins, and bacteria, like Salmonella, increase as the climate warms; this is an additional financial burden. Water scarcity – including disturbances of – caused or worsened by climate change can have substantial negative impacts on agriculture.
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