Decision theory

Related publications (580)

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Decisions about a current visual stimulus are systematically biased by recently encountered stimuli, a phenomenon known as serial dependence. In human vision, for instance, we tend to report the features of current images as more similar â i.e., an attra ...

EPFL2024

We give a characterization of rational points lying on the Noether-Lefschetz locus of moduli spaces of K3 surfaces by studying their lifting properties under some natural coverings of the ambient space. We then prove that the Bombieri-Lang conjecture impli ...

Oxford Univ Press2024

Optimal regimes for algorithm-assisted human decision-making

Mats Julius Stensrud, Aaron Leor Sarvet

We consider optimal regimes for algorithm-assisted human decision-making. Such regimes are decision functions of measured pre-treatment variables and, by leveraging natural treatment values, enjoy a superoptimality property whereby they are guaranteed to o ...

2024

Value Estimation versus Effort Mobilization: A General Dissociation between Ventromedial and Dorsomedial Prefrontal Cortex

Nicolas Clairis

Deciding on a course of action requires both an accurate estimation of option values and the right amount of effort invested in deliberation to reach suf fi cient con fi dence in the fi nal choice. In a previous study, we have provided evidence, across a s ...

Soc Neuroscience2024

A lunar reconnaissance drone for cooperative exploration and high-resolution mapping of extreme locations

David Rodriguez Martinez, Daniel Tataru, Erik Uythoven, Thomas Pfeiffer

An efficient characterization of scientifically significant locations is essential prior to the return of humans to the Moon. The highest resolution imagery acquired from orbit of south-polar shadowed regions and other relevant locations remains, at best, ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2024

A continuum approximation approach to the depot location problem in a crowd-shipping system

Nikolaos Geroliminis, Patrick Stefan Adriaan Stokkink

Last-mile delivery in the logistics chain contributes to congestion in urban networks due to frequent stops. Crowd-shipping is a sustainable and low-cost alternative to traditional delivery but relies heavily on the availability of occasional couriers. In ...

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD2023

Timing and spatial selection bias in rapid extreme event attribution

Anthony Christopher Davison, Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

Selection bias may arise when data have been chosen in a way that subsequent analysis does not account for. Such bias can arise in climate event attribution studies that are performed rapidly after a devastating "trigger event'', whose occurrence correspon ...

ELSEVIER2023

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We introduce contextual stochastic bilevel optimization (CSBO) -- a stochastic bilevel optimization framework with the lower-level problem minimizing an expectation conditioned on some contextual information and the upper-level decision variable. This fram ...

2023

Heuristic Estimation of the Vacuum Energy Density of the Universe: Part I—Analysis Based on Time Domain Electromagnetic Radiation

Marcos Rubinstein, Farhad Rachidi-Haeri

In this paper, an inequality satisfied by the vacuum energy density of the universe is derived using an indirect and heuristic procedure. The derivation is based on a proposed thought experiment, according to which an electron is accelerated to a constant ...

2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023