A puzzle in economics is a situation where the implication of theory is inconsistent with observed economic data.
An example is the equity premium puzzle, which relates to the fact that over the last two hundred years, the risk premium of stocks over bonds has been around 5.5%, much larger than expected from theory. The equity premium puzzle was first documented by Mehra and Prescot (1985).
See also ; Financial economics #Challenges and criticism.
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The equity premium puzzle refers to the inability of an important class of economic models to explain the average equity risk premium (ERP) provided by a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities over that of U.S. Treasury Bills, which has been observed for more than 100 years. There is a significant disparity between returns produced by stocks compared to returns produced by government treasury bills. The equity premium puzzle addresses the difficulty in understanding and explaining this disparity.
This course provides students with a working knowledge of macroeconomic models that explicitly incorporate financial markets. The goal is to develop a broad and analytical framework for analyzing the
We characterize a three-factor model of commodity spot prices, convenience yields, and interest rates, which nests many existing specifications. The model allows convenience yields to depend on spot prices and interest rates. It also allows for time-varyin ...
Structural models of default calibrated to historical default rates, recovery rates, and Sharpe ratios typically generate Baa-Aaa credit spreads that are significantly below historical values. However, this "credit spread puzzle" can be resolved if one acc ...