The Simon–Ehrlich wager was a 1980 scientific wager between business professor Julian L. Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. The widely-followed contest originated in the pages of Social Science Quarterly, where Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. In response to Ehrlich's published claim that "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000" Simon offered to take that bet, or, more realistically, "to stake US10,000...onmybeliefthatthecostofnon−government−controlledrawmaterials(includinggrainandoil)willnotriseinthelongrun."SimonchallengedEhrlichtochooseanyrawmaterialhewantedandadatemorethanayearaway,andhewouldwagerontheinflation−adjustedpricesdecreasingasopposedtoincreasing.Ehrlichchosecopper,chromium,nickel,tin,andtungsten.ThebetwasformalizedonSeptember29,1980,withSeptember29,1990,asthepayoffdate.Ehrlichlostthebet,asallfivecommoditiesthatwerebetondeclinedinpricefrom1980through1990,thewagerperiod.In1968,EhrlichpublishedThePopulationBomb,whicharguedthatmankindwasfacingademographiccatastrophewiththerateofpopulationgrowthquicklyoutstrippinggrowthinthesupplyoffoodandresources.Simonwashighlyskepticalofsuchclaims,soproposedawager,tellingEhrlichtoselectanyrawmaterialhewantedandselect"anydatemorethanayearaway,"andSimonwouldbetthatthecommodity′spriceonthatdatewouldbelowerthanwhatitwasatthetimeofthewager.Ehrlichandhiscolleaguespickedfivemetalsthattheythoughtwouldundergobigpriceincreases:chromium,copper,nickel,tin,andtungsten.Then,onpaper,theybought200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29, 1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the payoff date.
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