In economics, the fiscal multiplier (not to be confused with the money multiplier) is the ratio of change in national income arising from a change in government spending. More generally, the exogenous spending multiplier is the ratio of change in national income arising from any autonomous change in spending (including private investment spending, consumer spending, government spending, or spending by foreigners on the country's exports). When this multiplier exceeds one, the enhanced effect on national income may be called the multiplier effect. The mechanism that can give rise to a multiplier effect is that an initial incremental amount of spending can lead to increased income and hence increased consumption spending, increasing income further and hence further increasing consumption, etc., resulting in an overall increase in national income greater than the initial incremental amount of spending. In other words, an initial change in aggregate demand may cause a change in aggregate output (and hence the aggregate income that it generates) that is a multiple of the initial change.
The existence of a multiplier effect was initially proposed by Keynes student Richard Kahn in 1930 and published in 1931. Some other schools of economic thought reject or downplay the importance of multiplier effects, particularly in terms of the long run. The multiplier effect has been used as an argument for the efficacy of government spending or taxation relief to stimulate aggregate demand.
In certain cases multiplier values less than one have been empirically measured (an example is sports stadiums), suggesting that certain types of government spending crowd out private investment or consumer spending that would have otherwise taken place. This crowding out can occur because the initial increase in spending may cause an increase in interest rates or in the price level. In 2009, The Economist magazine noted "economists are in fact deeply divided about how well, or indeed whether, such stimulus works", partly because of a lack of empirical data from non-military based stimulus.
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In macroeconomics, a multiplier is a factor of proportionality that measures how much an endogenous variable changes in response to a change in some exogenous variable. For example, suppose variable x changes by k units, which causes another variable y to change by M × k units. Then the multiplier is M. Two multipliers are commonly discussed in introductory macroeconomics. Commercial banks create money, especially under the fractional-reserve banking system used throughout the world.
Government spending or expenditure includes all government consumption, investment, and transfer payments. In national income accounting, the acquisition by governments of goods and services for current use, to directly satisfy the individual or collective needs of the community, is classed as government final consumption expenditure. Government acquisition of goods and services intended to create future benefits, such as infrastructure investment or research spending, is classed as government investment (government gross capital formation).
In economics, crowding out is a phenomenon that occurs when increased government involvement in a sector of the market economy substantially affects the remainder of the market, either on the supply or demand side of the market. One type frequently discussed is when expansionary fiscal policy reduces investment spending by the private sector. The government spending is "crowding out" investment because it is demanding more loanable funds and thus causing increased interest rates and therefore reducing investment spending.
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