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Concept
Overshoot (population)
Summary
In environmental science, the concept of overshoot means demand in excess of regeneration. It can apply to animal populations and people. Environmental science studies to what extent human populations through their resource consumption have risen above the sustainable use of resources. For people, "overshoot" is that portion of their demand or ecological footprint which must be eliminated to be sustainable. Excessive demand leading to overshoot is driven by both consumption and population.
Population decline due to overshoot is known as 'collapse'. The path taken by such a population is referred to as 'overshoot-and-collapse'. Collapse, like overshoot, can occur due to various factors, with the Malthusian catastrophe being a specific but not identical case.
Overshoot can happen as a result of delayed impacts, where reproduction rates persistently surpass the death rate. This can lead to significant consequences, with entire ecosystems being profoundly impacted and sometimes simplified due to prolonged overshoot. An instance of this phenomenon took place in the Horn of Africa when smallpox was eradicated, causing a sudden increase in the population that exceeded the region's carrying capacity. For centuries, the land had sustained approximately 1 million pastoralists, but with the elimination of the disease, the population suddenly grew to 14 million people. Consequently, overgrazing occurred, leading to soil erosion.
Overconsumption and Sustainable population
Earth Overshoot DayHuman impact on the environment and Human ecology The 1972 book The Limits to Growth discussed the limits to growth of society as a whole. This book included a computer-based model which predicted that the Earth would reach a carrying capacity of ten to fourteen billion people after some two hundred years, after which the human population would collapse. The model was based on five variables: "population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources".
Official source
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