Prediction market | EPFL Graph Search

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the cont

Prediction of Survival and Risk Assessment Using Joint Analysis of Microarray Gene Expression Data

Haleh Yasrebi

Gene expression profiles have been widely used in molecular classification, diagnosis and prediction, particularly in the area of oncology where accurate and early diagnosis is needed for appropriate treatment. Avoiding under-/over-treatment when it is not necessary can extend a patient's survival and prevent disease recurrence. These high-throughput assay technologies have generated terabytes of data exploited extensively to provide insights on cancer biology and the underlying mechanism of disease progression. The ultimate goal is to identify possibly tailored treatment and therapy for personalized medicine. Analysis of microarray data is constrained by the following characteristics: (i) noisy due to missing or erroneous values; (ii) high dimensional due to a large number of genes versus a few number of samples in which their expression levels are measured; (iii) costly due to expensive microarray experiments. Abundant microarray gene expression data should be processed by appropriate computational and statistical learning methodologies such as machine learning techniques. These methods are robust to noisy data and have a great capacity to analyze high dimensional data. Their computational power is nevertheless limited to sample size based on which these methods are built. These algorithms have been widely applied to microarray gene expression data to identify a set of genes known as a gene signature whose expressions are highly correlated to a target value or outcome such as disease status, tumor subtype, a patient's survival time, risk of mortality or cancer relapse. Prediction of survival time and a patient's risk which is unknown at diagnosis presents a more challenging task for machine learning methods than tumor subtype or disease classification, which is already established by oncologists. The properties of microarray data cited above, the limitation of the number of samples in cancer patients and dependency of the machine learning methods' performance on sample size justify joint analysis of microarray data to increase the number of samples. We applied joint analysis methods to breast and lung cancer data sets to improve survival prediction and risk assessment. In overall, no significant improvement or deterioration of the performance accuracy was obtained with joint analysis. However, increasing sample size helped to identify robust or stable gene signatures predictive of survival time and risk assessment. Our achievements and learned-lessons from joint analysis of microarray gene expression data can be used as a guideline for future research studies in classification and prediction.

EPFL2010

Meta Transfer Learning for Early Success Prediction in MOOCs

Mirko Marras, Vinitra Swamy

Despite the increasing popularity of massive open online courses (MOOCs), many suffer from high dropout and low success rates. Early prediction of student success for targeted intervention is therefore essential to ensure no student is left behind in a course. There exists a large body of research in success prediction for MOOCs, focusing mainly on training models from scratch for individual courses. This setting is impractical in early success prediction as the performance of a student is only known at the end of the course. In this paper, we aim to create early success prediction models that can be transferred between MOOCs from different domains and topics. To do so, we present three novel strategies for transfer: 1) pre-training a model on a large set of diverse courses, 2) leveraging the pre-trained model by including meta information about courses, and 3) fine-tuning the model on previous course iterations. Our experiments on 26 MOOCs with over 145,000 combined enrollments and millions of interactions show that models combining interaction data and course information have comparable or better performance than models which have access to previous iterations of the course. With these models, we aim to effectively enable educators to warm-start their predictions for new and ongoing courses.

ACM2022

Leveraging Spatial and Photometric Context for Calibrated Non-Lambertian Photometric Stereo

Pascal Fua, David Honzátko, Engin Türetken

The problem of estimating a surface shape from its observed reflectance properties still remains a challenging task in computer vision. The presence of global illumination effects such as inter-reflections or cast shadows makes the task particularly difficult for non-convex real-world surfaces. State-of-the-art methods for calibrated photometric stereo address these issues using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that primarily aim to capture either the spatial context among adjacent pixels or the photometric one formed by illuminating a sample from adjacent directions. In this paper, we bridge these two objectives and introduce an efficient fully-convolutional architecture that can leverage both spatial and photometric context simultaneously. In contrast to existing approaches that rely on standard 2D CNNs and regress directly to surface normals, we argue that using separable 4D convolutions and regressing to 2D Gaussian heat-maps severely reduces the size of the network and leads to more stable predictions. Our experimental results on a real-world photometric stereo benchmark show that the proposed approach outperforms the existing published methods in accuracy. The source code for our method is available at https://github.com/DawyD/UNet-PS-4D.

IEEE COMPUTER SOC2021

Prediction of Survival and Risk Assessment Using Joint Analysis of Microarray Gene Expression Data

Haleh Yasrebi

EPFL2010