Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.
Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition and differentiates it from many other techniques and approaches to planning.
Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. A consideration of possible futures (alternative futures) and of probable futures (forecasts, predictions) is important to developing a preferred future (plan), even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action. It is the job of the strategic foresight professional to make sure appropriately diverse and relevant inputs, forecasts, and alternatives are considered in the analysis, decision making and planning processes, that plans are appropriately communicated and that when actions are taken, appropriate feedback occurs and after action reviews take place to improve the foresight process.
Strategic foresight is a growing practice in corporate foresight in large companies. Its use is also growing in government and non-profit organisations. In recent years, researchers and managers have also elaborated more on the links between foresight and innovation management.
Strategic foresight can be practiced at multiple levels, including:
Personal – "Personal and professional goal-setting and action planning"
Organizational – "Carrying out tomorrows' business better"
Social – "Moving toward the next civilisation – the one that lies beyond the current hegemony of techno/industrial/capitalist interests"
"Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.
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In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as: critical thinking concerning long-term developments, debate and for some futurists who are normative and focus on action driven by their values who may be concerned with effort to create wider participatory democracy. Foresight is a set of competencies and not a value system, however. shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy.
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which (1) emerging technologies are identified, (2) technology related information is channeled into an organization, and (3) supports the acquisition of technologies. It is a starting point of a long term and interactive matching process between external technologies and internal requirements of an existing organization for strategic purposes. This matching may also be aided by technology roadmapping.
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits.
This article focuses on activities of corporate foresight that constitute one of the core elements of strategic innovation management. Hence, corporate foresight plays a crucial role for the mid- to longterm competitiveness of firms. It typically comprises ...
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-r ...
2013
Explores the Solagro project and the challenges of ecological transition in Grand Genève, emphasizing the importance of defining collective goals and sustainable agriculture.