Model selection

Model selection is the task of selecting a model from among various candidates on the basis of performance criterion to choose the best one. In the context of learning, this may be the selection of a statistical model from a set of candidate models, given data. In the simplest cases, a pre-existing set of data is considered. However, the task can also involve the design of experiments such that the data collected is well-suited to the problem of model selection. Given candidate models of similar predictive or explanatory power, the simplest model is most likely to be the best choice (Occam's razor). state, "The majority of the problems in statistical inference can be considered to be problems related to statistical modeling". Relatedly, has said, "How [the] translation from subject-matter problem to statistical model is done is often the most critical part of an analysis". Model selection may also refer to the problem of selecting a few representative models from a large set of co

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Stratégies de compromis pour l'estimation des paramètres de régression et pour la classification floue

Nicolas Fournier

Model specification is an integral part of any statistical inference problem. Several model selection techniques have been developed in order to determine which model is the best one among a list of possible candidates. Another way to deal with this question is the so-called model averaging, and in particular the frequentist approach. An estimation of the parameters of interest is obtained by constructing a weighted average of the estimates of these quantities under each candidate model. We develop compromise frequentist strategies for the estimation of regression parameters, as well as for the probabilistic clustering problem. In the regression context, we construct compromise strategies based on the Pitman estimators associated with various underlying errors distributions. The weight given to each model is equal to its profile likelihood, which gives a measure of the goodness-of-fit. Asymptotic properties of both Pitman estimators and profile likelihood allow us to define a minimax strategy for choosing the distributions of the compromise, involving a notion of distance between distributions. Performances of such estimators are then compared to other usual and robust procedures. In the second part of the thesis, we develop compromise strategies in the probabilistic clustering context. Although this clustering method is based on mixtures of distributions, our compromise strategies are not applied directly to the estimates of the parameters, but on the posterior probabilities of membership. Two types of compromise are presented, and the performances of resulting classification rules are investigated.

EPFL2011

Birkhäuser2004

Lower and upper bounds for approximation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between Gaussian Mixture Models

Finnian Paul Kelly, Jean-Philippe Thiran

Many speech technology systems rely on Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). The need for a comparison between two GMMs arises in applications such as speaker verification, model selection or parameter estimation. For this purpose, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is often used. However, since there is no closed form expression to compute it, it can only be approximated. We propose lower and upper bounds for the KL divergence, which lead to a new approximation and interesting insights into previously proposed approximations. An application to the comparison of speaker models also shows how such approximations can be used to validate assumptions on the models.

Ieee2012

Akaike information criterion

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is an estimator of prediction error and thereby relative quality of statistical models for a given set of data. Given a collection of models for the data, AIC e

Bayesian information criterion

In statistics, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) or Schwarz information criterion (also SIC, SBC, SBIC) is a criterion for model selection among a finite set of models; models with lower BIC a

Statistical inference

Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for ex