Concept
Optimism bias
Related publications (13)
Serial Dependence in Human Visual Perception and Decision-Making
Decisions about a current visual stimulus are systematically biased by recently encountered stimuli, a phenomenon known as serial dependence. In human vision, for instance, we tend to report the features of current images as more similar â i.e., an attra ...
EPFL2024Information Processing Biases: The Effects of Negative Emotional Symptoms on Sampling Pleasant and Unpleasant Information
Although theories of emotion associate negative emotional symptoms with cognitive biases in information processing, they rarely specify the details. Here, we characterize cognitive biases in information processing of pleasant and unpleasant information, an ...
AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC2022Technologizing Democracy or Democratizing Technology? A Layered-Architecture Perspective on Potentials and Challenges
While technology is often claimed to be “democratizing”, the technologizing of society has more often yielded undemocratic or even anti-democratic outcomes. Is technology fundamentally at odds with democracy, or is it merely a rich and infinitely-adaptable ...
University of Chicago Press2021Modeling infectious disease dynamics towards informed public health interventions, with applications on COVID-19 and cholera
Emerging and existing infectious diseases pose a constant threat to individuals and communities across the world. In many cases, the burden of these diseases is preventable through public health interventions. However, taking the right decisions and design ...
EPFL2021Multi-armed Bandits in Action
Making decisions is part and parcel of being human. Among a set of actions, we want to choose the one that has the highest reward. But the uncertainty of the outcome prevents us from always making the right decision. Making decisions under uncertainty can ...
EPFL2020Context effects on probability estimation
Many decisions rely on how we evaluate potential outcomes and estimate their corresponding probabilities of occurrence. Outcome evaluation is subjective because it requires consulting internal preferences and is sensitive to context. In contrast, probabili ...
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2020Optimistic Distributionally Robust Optimization for Nonparametric Likelihood Approximation
Daniel Kuhn, Viet Anh Nguyen, Soroosh Shafieezadeh Abadeh, Wolfram Wiesemann
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood ...
2019Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty
When faced with a decision, most people like to know the odds and prefer to avoid ambiguity. It has been suggested that this aversion to ambiguity is linked to people's assumption of worst possible outcomes. We used two closely linked behavioural tasks in ...
2019Selection Bias in News Coverage: Learning it, Fighting it
News entities must select and filter the coverage they broadcast through their respective channels since the set of world events is too large to be treated exhaustively. The subjective nature of this filtering induces biases due to, among other things, res ...
2018