Concept

Economy of Eritrea

Summary
The economy of Eritrea has undergone extreme changes after the War of Independence. It experienced considerable growth in recent years, indicated by an improvement in gross domestic product in 2011 of 8.7 percent and in 2012 of 7.5% over 2011, and has a total of $8.090 billion as of 2020. However, worker remittances from abroad are estimated to account for 32 percent of gross domestic product. Eritrea has an extensive amount of resources such as copper, gold, granite, marble, and potash. As of 2012, 20 mining companies had obtained licenses to prospect and exploit mines. Eritrea's recent growth performance has been marked by significant volatility in part due to its dependence on a predominantly rain-fed agriculture sector, accounting for about one-third of the economy and which has a significant impact on distribution services which account for around 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), and on a narrow mining sector which also accounts for 20% of the economy. Real GDP growth is estimated to have recovered to around 12% in 2018, while averaging -2.7% during 2015–18 on account of frequent droughts and a decline in mining production. Reported inflation has been negative during 2016–18, following the exchange of currency in circulation in November 2015 that resulted in a monetary contraction. Deflation continued in 2018 as increased trade with Ethiopia resulted in further put downward pressure on prices. In recent years, Eritrea has significantly tightened fiscal policy to reverse the chronic deficits it suffered after the increase in regional insecurity in 1998. In 2018, the fiscal surplus widened to around 11% of GDP. This was largely achieved by a sharp drop in capital spending as well as some revenue measures. However, fiscal pressures, both recurrent and wage-related are likely to mount. Short-term growth prospects remain challenging given fiscal constraints and limited opportunities under existing restrictions. The recovery in agriculture is expected to slow.
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