Extreme Events: Metrics and Impacts

This lecture delves into the analysis of extreme events related to climate change, focusing on the remaining carbon budget, emission metrics, and the Paris Agreement's goals. It covers the concepts of emission metrics, net zero emissions, and the implications of different metrics on temperature outcomes. The lecture also explores the definition and characteristics of extreme events, such as heatwaves, fires, floods, and cyclones, along with the challenges in defining and predicting these events. Additionally, it discusses the fitting of extreme value distributions to climate data, the probability of occurrence of extreme events, and the changes in the frequency of hot extremes under different global warming scenarios.

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ENV-410: Science of climate change

The course equips students with a comprehensive scientific understanding of climate change covering a wide range of topics from physical principles, historical climate change, greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane.

Normal distribution

In statistics, a normal distribution or Gaussian distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution for a real-valued random variable. The general form of its probability density function is The parameter is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode), while the parameter is its standard deviation. The variance of the distribution is . A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed, and is called a normal deviate.

Carbon price

Carbon pricing (or pricing) is a method for nations to address climate change. The cost is applied to greenhouse gas emissions in order to encourage polluters to reduce the combustion of coal, oil and gas – the main driver of climate change. The method is widely agreed and considered to be efficient. Carbon pricing seeks to address the economic problem that emissions of and other greenhouse gases (GHG) are a negative externality – a detrimental product that is not charged for by any market.

Stable distribution

In probability theory, a distribution is said to be stable if a linear combination of two independent random variables with this distribution has the same distribution, up to location and scale parameters. A random variable is said to be stable if its distribution is stable. The stable distribution family is also sometimes referred to as the Lévy alpha-stable distribution, after Paul Lévy, the first mathematician to have studied it. Of the four parameters defining the family, most attention has been focused on the stability parameter, (see panel).

Ratio distribution

A ratio distribution (also known as a quotient distribution) is a probability distribution constructed as the distribution of the ratio of random variables having two other known distributions. Given two (usually independent) random variables X and Y, the distribution of the random variable Z that is formed as the ratio Z = X/Y is a ratio distribution. An example is the Cauchy distribution (also called the normal ratio distribution), which comes about as the ratio of two normally distributed variables with zero mean.

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