Risk, Variation, and Uncertainty

This lecture by the instructor covers the concepts of risk, variation, and uncertainty in the context of disaster risk reduction. It starts with an introduction to risk definition, random experiments, and expected loss estimation. The lecture then delves into the estimation of risk through probability models and loss functions. It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between variation and uncertainty, highlighting the need to quantify both in applications. The main points stress the representation of data using fitted probability models to estimate probabilities of unseen outcomes and combining them with estimated losses. Despite limitations such as limited data and assumptions in the probability model, the lecture advocates for making the best risk assessments possible.