Nonparametric Regression: Local Polynomial Estimation

This lecture introduces nonparametric regression, focusing on local polynomial estimation as a method to estimate regression functions in local terms. The instructor discusses the concept of smoothness in functions and demonstrates the use of kernel smoothing and local linear regression. The lecture also covers the idea of basis function estimation, particularly splines, and explains how penalized least squares can be used to balance fidelity to the data and smoothness in the estimated function. Through examples and mathematical explanations, the instructor illustrates the trade-offs between bias and variance in nonparametric regression methods.

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MATH-413: Statistics for data science

Statistics lies at the foundation of data science, providing a unifying theoretical and methodological backbone for the diverse tasks enountered in this emerging field. This course rigorously develops

Local regression

Local regression or local polynomial regression, also known as moving regression, is a generalization of the moving average and polynomial regression. Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), both pronounced ˈloʊɛs. They are two strongly related non-parametric regression methods that combine multiple regression models in a k-nearest-neighbor-based meta-model.

Polynomial regression

In statistics, polynomial regression is a form of regression analysis in which the relationship between the independent variable x and the dependent variable y is modelled as an nth degree polynomial in x. Polynomial regression fits a nonlinear relationship between the value of x and the corresponding conditional mean of y, denoted E(y |x). Although polynomial regression fits a nonlinear model to the data, as a statistical estimation problem it is linear, in the sense that the regression function E(y | x) is linear in the unknown parameters that are estimated from the data.

Kernel smoother

A kernel smoother is a statistical technique to estimate a real valued function as the weighted average of neighboring observed data. The weight is defined by the kernel, such that closer points are given higher weights. The estimated function is smooth, and the level of smoothness is set by a single parameter. Kernel smoothing is a type of weighted moving average. Let be a kernel defined by where: is the Euclidean norm is a parameter (kernel radius) D(t) is typically a positive real valued function, whose value is decreasing (or not increasing) for the increasing distance between the X and X0.

Nonparametric regression

Nonparametric regression is a category of regression analysis in which the predictor does not take a predetermined form but is constructed according to information derived from the data. That is, no parametric form is assumed for the relationship between predictors and dependent variable. Nonparametric regression requires larger sample sizes than regression based on parametric models because the data must supply the model structure as well as the model estimates.

Regression analysis

In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one or more independent variables (often called 'predictors', 'covariates', 'explanatory variables' or 'features'). The most common form of regression analysis is linear regression, in which one finds the line (or a more complex linear combination) that most closely fits the data according to a specific mathematical criterion.