Lecture
This lecture provides a comprehensive overview of financial crises, focusing on their predictability and historical examples. It begins with a roadmap outlining the discussion of systemic banking crises worldwide, including notable cases such as the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. The instructor discusses the buildup of the crisis, particularly in the US housing and mortgage markets, emphasizing the role of subprime mortgages. The lecture highlights the frequency and duration of banking crises, the typical responses from financial institutions, and the associated costs. It also examines the political ramifications following financial crises, illustrating how they can lead to increased polarization and support for extreme political parties. The discussion extends to the predictability of financial crises, contrasting views from policymakers with recent academic research suggesting that crises can be anticipated based on credit and asset price growth. The lecture concludes with reflections on the lessons learned from past crises and the implications for future financial regulation.