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Bettina Schaefli

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HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

Bettina Schaefli

Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places ...

2011

Signature-based model calibration for hydrologic prediction in mesoscale Alpine catchments

Bettina Schaefli, Abdelkader Mezghani

This paper presents a calibration framework for a precipitation-runoff model for flood prediction in a mesoscale Alpine basin with strongly anthropogenic discharges. The developed methodology addresses two classical hydrological calibration challenges: com ...

2010

Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

This paper addresses two major challenges in the field of climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The deve ...

2007

Accounting for global mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli, Abdelkader Mezghani

A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Model ...

2007

Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

Bayesian inference of posterior parameter distributions has become widely used in hydrological modeling to estimate the associated modeling uncertainty. The classical underlying statistical model assumes a Gaussian modeling error with zero mean and a given ...

2007

Assessment of climate change impacts on Alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli, Abdelkader Mezghani

The present study analyzes the uncertainty induced by the use of different state-of-the-art climate models on the prediction of climate change impacts on the runoff regimes of 11 mountainous catchments in the Swiss Alps having current glaciation rates betw ...

2006

What can we learn by transposing the calibration – validation paradigm into a multi-objective context ?

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

The classical single-objective model calibration and validation approach using different time periods for each of them is known not to be sufficient to judge whether the model predictions are consistent or to detect model structural deficiencies. It is how ...

2005

A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli, Markus Niggli

In high mountainous catchments, the spatial precipitation and therefore the overall water balance is generally difficult to estimate. The present paper describes the structure and calibration of a semi-lumped conceptual glaciohydrological model for the joi ...

2005

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in climate change impact studies on water resources : application to a glacier-fed hydropower production system in the Swiss Alps

Bettina Schaefli

This PhD thesis presents the development of a methodological framework to analyse potential climate change impacts on a high mountainous water resources system and to quantify the associated modelling uncertainties. The main objective is to show whether st ...

EPFL2005

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Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

2007

Accounting for global mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli, Abdelkader Mezghani

2007

Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

2007

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in climate change impact studies on water resources : application to a glacier-fed hydropower production system in the Swiss Alps

Bettina Schaefli

EPFL2005

A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli, Markus Niggli

2005