Sofia Charlotta Olhede

A developmental shift in habituation to pain in human neonates

Habituation to recurrent non-threatening or unavoidable noxious stimuli is an important aspect of adaptation to pain. Neonates, especially if preterm, are exposed to repeated noxious procedures during their clinical care. They can mount strong behavioral, autonomic, spinal, and cortical responses to a single noxious stim-ulus; however, it is not known whether the developing nervous system can adapt to the recurrence of these inputs. Here, we used electroencephalography to investigate changes in cortical microstates (representing the complex sequential processing of noxious inputs) following two consecutive clinically required heel lan-ces in term and preterm infants. We show that stimulus repetition dampens the engagement of initial micro -states and associated behavioral and autonomic responses in term infants, while preterm infants do not show signs of habituation. Nevertheless, both groups engage different longer-latency cortical microstates to each lance, which is likely to reflect changes in higher-level stimulus processing with repeated stimulation. These data suggest that while both age groups are capable of encoding contextual differences in pain, the preterm brain does not regulate the initial cortical, behavioral, and autonomic responses to repeated noxious stimuli. Habituation mechanisms to pain are already in place at term age but mature over the equivalent of the last trimester of gestation and are not fully functional in preterm neonates.

CELL PRESS2023

Multivariate geometric anisotropic Cox processes

This paper introduces a new modeling and inference framework for multivariate and anisotropic point processes. Building on recent innovations in multivariate spatial statistics, we propose a new family of multivariate anisotropic random fields, and from them a family of anisotropic point processes. We give conditions that make the proposed models valid. We also propose a Palm likelihood-based inference method for this type of point process, circumventing issues of likelihood tractability. Finally we illustrate the utility of the proposed modeling framework by analyzing spatial ecological observations of plants and trees in the Barro Colorado Island data.

WILEY2023

Networks with correlated edge processes

Sofia Charlotta Olhede, Mária Süveges

This article proposes methods to model non-stationary temporal graph processes motivated by a hospital interaction data set. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables indicating interactions between pairs of nodes exhibiting dependence and evolution in time over interactions. This article thus blends (integer) time series models with flexible static network models to produce models of temporal graph data, and statistical fitting procedures for time-varying interaction data. We illustrate the power of our proposed fitting method by analysing a hospital contact network, and this shows the challenge in modelling and inferring correlation between a large number of variables.

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

The elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

We introduce the elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which is a generalisation of the well-known univariate OU process to bivariate time series. This process maps out elliptical stochastic oscillations over time in the complex plane, which are observed in many applications of coupled bivariate time series. The appeal of the model is that elliptical oscillations are generated using one simple first order stochastic differential equation (SDE), whereas alternative models require more complicated vectorised or higher order SDE representations. The second useful feature is that parameter estimation can be performed semi-parametrically in the frequency domain using the Whittle Likelihood. We determine properties of the model including the conditions for stationarity, and the geometrical structure of the elliptical oscillations. We demonstrate the utility of the model by measuring periodic and elliptical properties of Earth's polar motion.

INT PRESS BOSTON, INC2023

The Debiased Spatial Whittle likelihood

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

We provide a computationally and statistically efficient method for estimating the parameters of a stochastic covariance model observed on a regular spatial grid in any number of dimensions. Our proposed method, which we call the Debiased Spatial Whittle likelihood, makes important corrections to the well-known Whittle likelihood to account for large sources of bias caused by boundary effects and aliasing. We generalize the approach to flexibly allow for significant volumes of missing data including those with lower-dimensional substructure, and for irregular sampling boundaries. We build a theoretical framework under relatively weak assumptions which ensures consistency and asymptotic normality in numerous practical settings including missing data and non-Gaussian processes. We also extend our consistency results to multivariate processes. We provide detailed implementation guidelines which ensure the estimation procedure can be conducted in O(nlogn) operations, where n is the number of points of the encapsulating rectangular grid, thus keeping the computational scalability of Fourier and Whittle-based methods for large data sets. We validate our procedure over a range of simulated and realworld settings, and compare with state-of-the-art alternatives, demonstrating the enduring practical appeal of Fourier-based methods, provided they are corrected by the procedures developed in this paper.

WILEY2022

Atomic subgraphs and the statistical mechanics of networks

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

We develop random graph models where graphs are generated by connecting not only pairs of vertices by edges, but also larger subsets of vertices by copies of small atomic subgraphs of arbitrary topology. This allows for the generation of graphs with extensive numbers of triangles and other network motifs commonly observed in many real-world networks. More specifically, we focus on maximum entropy ensembles under constraints placed on the counts and distributions of atomic subgraphs and derive general expressions for the entropy of such models. We also present a procedure for combining distributions of multiple atomic subgraphs that enables the construction of models with fewer parameters. Expanding the model to include atoms with edge and vertex labels we obtain a general class of models that can be parametrized in terms of basic building blocks and their distributions that include many widely used models as special cases. These models include random graphs with arbitrary distributions of subgraphs, random hypergraphs, bipartite models, stochastic block models, models of multilayer networks and their degree-corrected and directed versions. We show that the entropy for all these models can be derived from a single expression that is characterized by the symmetry groups of atomic subgraphs.

2021

Modeling Network Populations via Graph Distances

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

This article introduces a new class of models for multiple networks. The core idea is to parameterize a distribution on labeled graphs in terms of a Frechet mean graph (which depends on a user-specified choice of metric or graph distance) and a parameter that controls the concentration of this distribution about its mean. Entropy is the natural parameter for such control, varying from a point mass concentrated on the Frechet mean itself to a uniform distribution over all graphs on a given vertex set. We provide a hierarchical Bayesian approach for exploiting this construction, along with straightforward strategies for sampling from the resultant posterior distribution. We conclude by demonstrating the efficacy of our approach via simulation studies and two multiple-network data analysis examples: one drawn from systems biology and the other from neuroscience. This article has online.

AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC2020