Publication
Autoregressive moving average model for analyzing edge localized mode time series on Axially Symmetric Divertor Experiment (ASDEX) Upgrade tokamak
Abstract
An approach to analysis of time series of edge localized modes (ELMs) is proposed. It is based on the use of the autoregressive moving average model, which decomposes time series into deterministic and noise components. Despite the inclusion of nonlinearity in the model, the resulting deterministic equations for the ELM time series measured on Axially Symmetric Divertor Experiment Upgrade tokamak turn out to be linear. This contrasts with the findings on JAERI tokamak (JT-60U) and tokamak a configuration variable that ELMs exhibit features of chaotic dynamics, namely, the presence of unstable periodic orbits. This methodology for distinguishing chaotic behavior is examined, and found to be susceptible to misinterpretation. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.
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Related concepts (33)
Autoregressive–moving-average model
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, Hypothesis testing in time series analysis, and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins.
Moving-average model
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure.
Tokamak
A tokamak (ˈtoʊkəmæk; токамáк) is a device which uses a powerful magnetic field to confine plasma in the shape of a torus. The tokamak is one of several types of magnetic confinement devices being developed to produce controlled thermonuclear fusion power. , it was the leading candidate for a practical fusion reactor. Tokamaks were initially conceptualized in the 1950s by Soviet physicists Igor Tamm and Andrei Sakharov, inspired by a letter by Oleg Lavrentiev. The first working tokamak was attributed to the work of Natan Yavlinsky on the T-1 in 1958.
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