A Systems Modelling Framework to Support Scenario-Based Approaches for Integrated Resources Management

Bastien Roquier
EPFL, 2011
EPFL thesis

Abstract

Integrated natural resources management is an emerging discipline that aims to move beyond piecemeal approaches and promote integrated actions over a wide range of disciplines and actors. One of the technical challenges of this new discipline is the integration of information from different sources and with different levels of detail. Geographic information systems (GIS) have often been used for this purpose, but they are often inadequate to represent the structure and dynamics of human and natural systems. This thesis aims to provide a new framework for modelling information in the field of integrated natural resources management. This framework relies on the development of a modelling language (called SYSMOD) that encodes the information required by the integrated management process. This language is based on the principles of systems approach and semantic integration that allow integrating, organising and sharing data from multiple knowledge domains. To use the SYSMOD language, an information system was developed in the lab of EPFL Ecohydrology. This information system – known as "Combined Water Information System (CWIS)" because of its application to water management – consists of a database and a Web application. Its user interface provides a set of tools to create: (1) systemic views based on the SYSMOD language, (2) geographical views similar to those of GIS and (3) "report" views used to display and edit data such as text, files, images or numerical values. CWIS was subsequently enhanced to manage scenario data and therefore provide support for scenario planning. Scenarios in strategic planning help to identify the impact of the most uncertain and important factors, and thus promotes the development of strategies adapted to several possible futures. In this context, CWIS has been extended to integrate the concepts of uncertainty and data provenance, to characterise the information validity and trace the sources of data. Most of the time, the creation of scenarios and strategies requires data that can be provided only through simulations. Consequently, a modelling approach has been developed to enable the integration of mathematical models with CWIS. The particularity of this approach is to combine in a single method the concepts of model integration, uncertainty and data provenance to provide detailed results that highlight the risks and uncertainties associated with the scenarios and strategies. CWIS was applied in a series of case studies, in particular the management of water resources in Alexandria (Egypt). CWIS, and in general the framework that was used in its development, have proved to be powerful tools to handle the different types of information in a holistic and transdisciplinary way. This thesis proved that scenario planning, systems thinking, semantic integration and model integration are essential aspects to be considered in the development of tools for integrated natural resources management.

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Bastien Roquier
EPFL, 2011
EPFL thesis

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/165392?ln=en

About this result

Related concepts (13)

Related concepts

Related publications (5)

Related publications

In the field of environmental management, inefficient piecemeal sectorial approaches are still widespread, particularly in water resources management, where concerns and decisions are usually split among a set of rather weakly linked stakeholders. Planning and management problems to be addressed are in most cases complex and need to be tackled in a global, integrated and holistic way, including information from the different areas of science and knowledge from the various stakeholders. Therefore, the sharing and integration of data, knowledge and models has become a major issue. A lot of effort has been made in recent years to develop such integrative tools, including information systems (IS), decision support systems (DSS) or integrated modelling frameworks (IMF). Although these tools achieved great progress in terms of linkages, there is currently no environment providing a full integration of the various kinds of data, models, and their visualisation. This is the general issue tackled by the present thesis, with developments based on a semantic, systemic formalism, and applications focusing on water management issues. The first development step taken was the creation of a systemic description of water management. Albeit the various aspects of water management are abundantly documented and well-known, an integrated description including interconnections was lacking. Therefore, a graphic representation of interconnected system elements annotated with definitions was created. This innovative result constitutes an ontology (a formal representation of a knowledge domain) providing a robust reference and a fairly exhaustive reminder of the complexity of the water management field, including transdisciplinary aspects. In the second step, a data model was created, based on the new SYSMOD language. The latter proposes a new graphical language uniting the ontological and systemic approaches, with a strong emphasis on interactions. Whereas existing data models are generally specific to a field or designed for a target application, this new data model is generic and transdisciplinary. It can handle any kind of systemically organised data, which potentially includes any sort of environmental data. To visualise and manage the systems-based, generic data stored within the database (created on the basis of the generic data model) a new kind of visualisation was developed, proposing diagrams of interconnected nodes. Whereas existing information systems are often data warehouses without a user-friendly graphical user interface, or geographic information systems focussing on spatial data, this new diagram visualisation proposes views including spatial and non-spatial system elements (such as lakes, power plants, stakeholders or laws) interconnected by interactions (such as fluxes or influences). Bound to the database, the tool was called an "information system on the system" (ISS). It provides a way of graphically managing and integrating the systemically organised, generic, transdisciplinary data. Furthermore, the systems approach fosters the apprehension and communication of complex situations in a holistic way (involving many different elements, influences and interactions from various fields), through their representation into thematic views. In complement to the diagram visualisation, a reporting tool was developed to display the data linked to system elements (numeric values, comments, files, etc.) in a web-browser fashion. To interoperate with external models, another module was developed on the top of the ISS. Finally, a fully-fledged general user interface was created to integrate all the previous developments into a single environment. To visualise the different facets of system elements, a geographic and a chart view were added, in complement to the reporting view. This final tool was called the generic decision support system (GenDSS), as its application to given situations can give rise to a series of views and linkages to models, thereby providing specific DSS functionalities for these situations. The successive developments were tested in Birmingham (United Kingdom). Test results indicated that the GenDSS is currently limited to managing a few hundred elements; beyond this quantity, the loading times and the user interface reactivity can become long and unresponsive. On the other hand, the application also demonstrated the strengths of the GenDSS which provides an innovative integrated solution to centralise transdisciplinary data in various formats (e.g. numeric values, texts, geometries, files), to holistically describe situations using complementary visualisations, and to test scenarios using externally-linked models. Thus, the GenDSS may prove an adequately versatile solution for large institutions or enterprises dealing with complex situations, heterogeneous and transdisciplinary data, and where requirements are continuously evolving, such as: a car manufacturing corporation (which would involve several different production and research sites in different countries with different regulations), a hospital, or a strategic environmental planning network (where the tool could help to break the transdisciplinary, sectorial barriers). In the case of water, the GenDSS system could prove very useful to achieve a truly integrated water management approach.

EPFL2010

Towards an information system on the water system

André Mermoud, Bastien Roquier, Colin Schenk

Integrated water resources management is generally considered a relevant methodology given the pressing necessity to use water in a sustainable manner. However, its application framework still needs refinements. As a first step towards the creation of such an improved framework, a system model for water management has been proposed, including a broad view upon the elements involved directly or indirectly (such as the energy, the public health or the housing conditions) in water management. The model may be applied to large entities such as regions or cities. This could lead to the creation of “information systems about the system”, systemic views with access to detailed data regarding the water-related infrastructures, ecosystem, natural and human resources, and legislative context, including relationships between these elements.

2007

The world is becoming more and more urban. During the last fifty years, the population in Swiss cities has grown from 45% to 70% of the total population. This change is characterised by urban sprawl and by an increase in the consumption of resources, particularly those coming from rural areas. This evolution is not compatible with the principles of sustainable development. To solve this problem, new urban policies are being developed. They favour development within the urbanised areas and reduced use of exogenous resources. The urban underground contains resources – space, geomaterials, groundwater and geothermal energy – which can efficiently support such policies. This project analyses how these resources have been exploited until now and how they could be used with sustainability in mind. The use of underground resources was analysed in five cities : Mexico, Paris, Helsinki, Tokyo and Montreal. It appears that, although resources participate in the urban metabolism, there is an important lack of planning and coordination in their use. Developments follow a sectional approach where the resources are considered independently, and only at the scale of a given construction project. As a consequence, conflicts occur between uses and resources are wasted. An understanding of the urban underground as a system was developed with the aim of preventing conflicts and promoting synergies. To this effect, the way in which resources interact was considered attentively. Situations in which interactions occur were described and analysed and compatibility conditions were suggested. A methodology was elaborated to evaluate the resource potential of an urban underground. It aims at considering the resources and the interactions between their uses from the beginning of the process of urban planning. The methodology is based on the use of Geographical Information Systems and 3-D modelling of geological and hydrogeological conditions. It aims at reversing the current paradigm, that proceeds from the needs to the resources, into an approach based on resources to satisfy the needs. Spatial information was exploited to determine indicators and maps of potentiality and of restrictions. The derived results will help support decision making by planners and policy makers who seek to better exploit the resources from the urban underground. The methodology was tested and applied on a case study : Geneva. The developed approach allows more efficiency in the use of urban underground resources, it can help prevent conflicts between uses and develop synergies. When integrated in the urban planning process, it highlights new opportunities and helps to develop projects that take into account the physical conditions of the underground.

EPFL2009

EPFL2010

EPFL2009