Prior probabilityA prior probability distribution of an uncertain quantity, often simply called the prior, is its assumed probability distribution before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable.
Time preferenceIn economics, time preference (or time discounting, delay discounting, temporal discounting, long-term orientation) is the current relative valuation placed on receiving a good or some cash at an earlier date compared with receiving it at a later date. Time preferences are captured mathematically in the discount function. The higher the time preference, the higher the discount placed on returns receivable or costs payable in the future. One of the factors that may determine an individual's time preference is how long that individual has lived.
Stochastic processIn probability theory and related fields, a stochastic (stəˈkæstɪk) or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a sequence of random variables, where the index of the sequence has the interpretation of time. Stochastic processes are widely used as mathematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. Examples include the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule.
Hyperbolic discountingIn economics, hyperbolic discounting is a time-inconsistent model of delay discounting. It is one of the cornerstones of behavioral economics and its brain-basis is actively being studied by neuroeconomics researchers. According to the discounted utility approach, intertemporal choices are no different from other choices, except that some consequences are delayed and hence must be anticipated and discounted (i.e., reweighted to take into account the delay). Given two similar rewards, humans show a preference for one that arrives sooner rather than later.
Poisson point processIn probability, statistics and related fields, a Poisson point process is a type of random mathematical object that consists of points randomly located on a mathematical space with the essential feature that the points occur independently of one another. The Poisson point process is often called simply the Poisson process, but it is also called a Poisson random measure, Poisson random point field or Poisson point field.
Infimum and supremumIn mathematics, the infimum (abbreviated inf; plural infima) of a subset of a partially ordered set is the greatest element in that is less than or equal to each element of if such an element exists. In other words, it is the greatest element of that is lower or equal to the lowest element of . Consequently, the term greatest lower bound (abbreviated as ) is also commonly used. The supremum (abbreviated sup; plural suprema) of a subset of a partially ordered set is the least element in that is greater than or equal to each element of if such an element exists.
Least-upper-bound propertyIn mathematics, the least-upper-bound property (sometimes called completeness or supremum property or l.u.b. property) is a fundamental property of the real numbers. More generally, a partially ordered set X has the least-upper-bound property if every non-empty subset of X with an upper bound has a least upper bound (supremum) in X. Not every (partially) ordered set has the least upper bound property. For example, the set of all rational numbers with its natural order does not have the least upper bound property.
Concentration inequalityIn probability theory, concentration inequalities provide bounds on how a random variable deviates from some value (typically, its expected value). The law of large numbers of classical probability theory states that sums of independent random variables are, under very mild conditions, close to their expectation with a large probability. Such sums are the most basic examples of random variables concentrated around their mean. Recent results show that such behavior is shared by other functions of independent random variables.
