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Multi-resource allocation in stochastic project scheduling

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Multilevel Monte Carlo Approximation of Functions

Fabio Nobile, Sebastian Krumscheid

Many applications across sciences and technologies require a careful quantification of nondeterministic effects to a system output, for example, when evaluating the system’s reliability or when gearing it towards more robust operation conditions. At the he ...

2018

Energy and Reserve Dispatch with Distributionally Robust Joint Chance Constraints

Daniel Kuhn, Viet Anh Nguyen, Christos Ordoudis

We develop a two-stage stochastic program for energy and reserve dispatch, which ensures the safe operation of a power system with a high penetration of renewables and a strong interdependence with the natural gas system. Distributionally robust joint chan ...

2018

MATHICSE Technical Report : Multilevel Monte Carlo approximation of functions

Fabio Nobile, Sebastian Krumscheid

Many applications across sciences and technologies require a careful quantification of non-deterministic effects to a system output, for example when evaluating the system's reliability or when gearing it towards more robust operation conditions. At the he ...

MATHICSE2017

Robust Portfolio Optimization

Zheng Wei Yap

Since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the financial market has become more unpredictable than ever before, and it seems set to remain so in the forseeable future. This means an investor faces unprecedented risks, hence the increasing need for robust port ...

EPFL2017

Model Uncertainty And Scenario Aggregation

Damir Filipovic, Mathieu Jacques David Cambou

This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the defi ...

Wiley-Blackwell2017

Robust Bounds In Multivariate Extremes

Sebastian Engelke

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is crucial and it is ...

Institute of Mathematical Statistics2017

Interdiction Games on Markovian PERT Networks

Daniel Kuhn, Wolfram Wiesemann, Eli Gutin

In a stochastic interdiction game a proliferator aims to minimize the expected duration of a nuclear weapons development project, and an interdictor endeavors to maximize the project duration by delaying some of the project tasks. We formulate static and d ...

Informs2015

Distributionally Robust Joint Chance Constraints with Second-Order Moment Information

Daniel Kuhn

We develop tractable semidefinite programming based approximations for distributionally robust individual and joint chance constraints, assuming that only the first- and second-order moments as well as the support of the uncertain parameters are given. It ...

2013

Risk-averse shortest path problems

Daniel Kuhn, Grani Adiwena Hanasusanto

We investigate routing policies for shortest path problems with uncertain arc lengths. The objective is to minimize a risk measure of the total travel time. We use the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) for when the arc lengths (durations) have known distrib ...

IEEE2012

Expect the Unexpected

Georgeta Geambasu

This study originates from the recognition that project management research is replete with normative theories on what need projects to be successful. However, it has performed worse with respect to assisting the understanding of how and why similar projec ...

EPFL2011