Reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty for an Alpine catchment using a non-parametric methodology
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This paper presents a score that can be used for evaluating probabilistic forecasts of multicategory events. The score is a reinterpretation of the logarithmic score or ignorance score, now formulated as the relative entropy or Kullback–Leibler divergence ...
Bayesian inference of posterior parameter distributions has become widely used in hydrological modeling to estimate the associated modeling uncertainty. The classical underlying statistical model assumes a Gaussian modeling error with zero mean and a given ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, un ...
Determining safe aircraft trajectories that avoid hazardous weather regions and other aircraft while efficiently using the available airspace is an important problem. Although tactical weather forecast maps have been available, their use in automated aircr ...
A novel uncertainty assessment methodology, based on a statistical non-parametric approach, is presented in this paper. It achieves quantification of code physical model uncertainty by making use of model performance information obtained from studies of ap ...
In a recent publication, Haestier [J. Appl. Cryst. (2009), 42, 798-809] has proposed a method to take care of the unit-cell-parameter uncertainties in the calculation of geometric quantities such as interatomic distances and bond angles by modifying the un ...
Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some environments by extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in historical data can reduce the usefulness of mathematical fo ...
We develop an accurate model for the arrival traffic dynamics in terminal airspace that takes into account the weather forecast and runway configuration changes. The planning of runway configuration switching subject to weather constraints is formulated as ...
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics2011
Probabilistic predictions are becoming increasingly popular in hydrology. Equally important are methods to test such predictions, given the topical debate on uncertainty analysis in hydrology. Also in the special case of hydrological forecasting, there is ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context, extrapolating regular patterns in series. However unpredictable e ...
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