Monte Carlo methodMonte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or impossible to use other approaches. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution.
Bregman divergenceIn mathematics, specifically statistics and information geometry, a Bregman divergence or Bregman distance is a measure of difference between two points, defined in terms of a strictly convex function; they form an important class of divergences. When the points are interpreted as probability distributions – notably as either values of the parameter of a parametric model or as a data set of observed values – the resulting distance is a statistical distance. The most basic Bregman divergence is the squared Euclidean distance.
Coordinate descentCoordinate descent is an optimization algorithm that successively minimizes along coordinate directions to find the minimum of a function. At each iteration, the algorithm determines a coordinate or coordinate block via a coordinate selection rule, then exactly or inexactly minimizes over the corresponding coordinate hyperplane while fixing all other coordinates or coordinate blocks. A line search along the coordinate direction can be performed at the current iterate to determine the appropriate step size.
Omitted-variable biasIn statistics, omitted-variable bias (OVB) occurs when a statistical model leaves out one or more relevant variables. The bias results in the model attributing the effect of the missing variables to those that were included. More specifically, OVB is the bias that appears in the estimates of parameters in a regression analysis, when the assumed specification is incorrect in that it omits an independent variable that is a determinant of the dependent variable and correlated with one or more of the included independent variables.
Bayesian optimizationBayesian optimization is a sequential design strategy for global optimization of black-box functions that does not assume any functional forms. It is usually employed to optimize expensive-to-evaluate functions. The term is generally attributed to Jonas Mockus and is coined in his work from a series of publications on global optimization in the 1970s and 1980s. Bayesian optimization is typically used on problems of the form , where is a set of points, , which rely upon less than 20 dimensions (), and whose membership can easily be evaluated.
Gibbs' inequalityIn information theory, Gibbs' inequality is a statement about the information entropy of a discrete probability distribution. Several other bounds on the entropy of probability distributions are derived from Gibbs' inequality, including Fano's inequality. It was first presented by J. Willard Gibbs in the 19th century. Suppose that is a discrete probability distribution. Then for any other probability distribution the following inequality between positive quantities (since pi and qi are between zero and one) holds: with equality if and only if for all i.
Marginal likelihoodA marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space. In Bayesian statistics, it represents the probability of generating the observed sample from a prior and is therefore often referred to as model evidence or simply evidence. Given a set of independent identically distributed data points where according to some probability distribution parameterized by , where itself is a random variable described by a distribution, i.e.
Dummy variable (statistics)In regression analysis, a dummy variable (also known as indicator variable or just dummy) is one that takes the values 0 or 1 to indicate the absence or presence of some categorical effect that may be expected to shift the outcome. For example, if we were studying the relationship between biological sex and income, we could use a dummy variable to represent the sex of each individual in the study. The variable could take on a value of 1 for males and 0 for females (or vice versa).
