MATHICSE Technical Report : Quantifying uncertainties in contact mechanics of rough surfaces using the Multilevel Monte Carlo method

We quantify the effect of uncertainties on quantities of interest related to contact mechanics of rough surfaces. Specifically, we consider the problem of frictionless non adhesive normal contact between two semi infinite linear elastic solids subject to uncertainties. These uncertainties may for example originate from an incomplete surface description. To account for surface uncertainties, we model a rough surface as a suitable Gaussian random field whose covariance function encodes the surface's roughness, which is experimentally measurable. Within this stochastic framework, we first introduce the complete random contact model, which includes the precise definition of the considered class of rough random surfaces as well as the study of a practical random surface generator. Then, we introduce the multilevel Monte Carlo method which is a computationally efficient sampling method for the computation of statistical moments of uncertain system output's, such as those derived from contact simulations. In particular, we consider two different quantities of interest, namely the contact area and the number of contact clusters, and show via numerical experiments that the multilevel Monte Carlo method offers significant computational gains compared to an approximation via a classic Monte Carlo sampling.

Bayesian risk analysis of financial time series

Christophe Osinski

This thesis is a contribution to financial statistics. One of the principal concerns of investors is the evaluation of portfolio risk. The notion of risk is vague, but in finance it is always linked to possible losses. In this thesis, we present some measures allowing the valuation of risk with the help of Bayesian methods. An exploratory analysis of data is presented to describe the sampling properties of financial time series. This analysis allows us to understand the origins of the daily returns studied in this thesis. Moreover, a discussion of different models is presented. These models make strong assumptions on investor behaviour, which are not always satisfied. This exploratory analysis shows some differences between the behaviour anticipated under equilibrium models, and that of real data. The Bayesian approach has been chosen because it allows one to incorporate all the variability, in particular that associated with model choice. The models studied in this thesis allow one to take heteroskedasticity into account, as well as particular shapes of the tails of returns. ARCH type models and models based on extreme value theory are studied. One original aspect of this thesis is its use of Bayesian analysis to detect change points in financial time series. We suppose that a market has two phases, and that it switches from a state to the other at random. Another new contribution is a model integrating heteroskedasticity and time dependence of extreme values, by superposition of the model proposed by Bortot and Coles (2003) and a GARCH process. This thesis uses simulation intensively for the estimation of risk measures. The drawback of simulation is the amount of time needed to obtain accurate estimates. However, simulation allows one to produce results when direct calculation is not feasible. For example, simulation allows one to compute risk estimates for time horizons greater than one day. The methods presented in this thesis are illustrated on simulated data, and on real data from European and American markets. This thesis involved the construction of a library containing C and S code to perform risk analysis using GARCH and extreme value theory models. The results show that model uncertainty can be incorporated, and that risk measures for time horizons greater than one can be obtained by simulation. The methods presented in this thesis have a natural representation involving conditioning. Thus, they permit the computation of both conditional and unconditional risk estimates. Three methods are described: the GARCH method; the two-state GARCH method; and the HBC method. Unconditional risk estimation using the GARCH method is satisfactory on data which seem stationary, but not reliable on data which are non-stationary, such as data with change points. The two-state GARCH model does a little better, but gives very satisfactory results when the risk is estimated conditionally on time. The HBC method does not give satisfactory results.

EPFL2006

Stabilized multilevel Monte Carlo method for stiff stochastic differential equations

Assyr Abdulle, Adrian Blumenthal

A multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for mean square stable stochastic differential equations with multiple scales is proposed. For such problems, that we call stiff, the performance of MLMC methods based on classical explicit methods deteriorates because of the time step restriction to resolve the fastest scales that prevents to exploit all the levels of the MLMC approach. We show that by switching to explicit stabilized stochastic methods and balancing the stabilization procedure simultaneously with the hierarchical sampling strategy of MLMC methods, the computational cost for stiff systems is significantly reduced, while keeping the computational algorithm fully explicit and easy to implement. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear stochastic differential equations and on a stochastic partial differential equation illustrate the performance of the stabilized MLMC method and corroborate our theoretical findings. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science2013

Bayesian risk analysis of financial time series

Christophe Osinski

EPFL2006