Three Essays in Banking and Finance

This thesis develops three models that study the motivation of various agents to take on debt, and the impact that excessive financial leverage can have on social welfare. In the chapter "Short-term Bank Leverage and the Value of Liquid Reserves", the incentive of a bank to take on leverage stems from the fact that its short-term debt provides liquidity benefits to depositors, at the cost of exposing the bank to the risk of runs. In the model, a bank possesses two instruments to manage the risk of runs: its funding policy and the size of its liquid asset holdings, modeled as government bonds. Issuing more debt allows the bank to better capture the liquidity benefits fits priced into deposits but increases illiquidity risk. Holding more bonds makes the bank more robust to withdrawals but it reduces the bank's asset returns. When the supply is scarce, banks are the natural buyers of government bonds. This links the liquidity premium priced into government bonds to the risk of bank runs. In the chapter "Liquidity, Debt Overhang, and Monetary Policy", firms take on bank credit to relax their liquidity constraint and purchase new capital. But taking on debt creates a debt overhang distortion which causes entrepreneurs to pass on protable projects. In the model, entrepreneurs arrange for their financing before they observe the profitability of their investment opportunity. After the latter becomes known, entrepreneurs are liquidity-constrained when investment conditions are favorable, and over-indebted when they are unfavorable. The monetary authority can generate welfare gains by lowering the cost of holding liquidity and, when debt is contracted in nominal terms, by pursuing a counter-cyclical monetary policy. In the chapter "Safe Claim Production and Capital Structure", firms issue debt to satisfy the demand of risk-averse investors for safe claims, at the cost of increasing default risk. In general equilibrium, firms need to be compensated for this service, which can only occur if their debt and equity claims are held and priced by different investor types. This segmentation of the investor base can be sufficient to prevent the existence of a symmetric equilibrium. Instead, only a fraction of firms opt for levered capital structures, and the gain in value obtained by tranching cash flows into debt and equity is offset by the expected cost of default. Changes in aggregate leverage can be divided into variations in extensive (the fraction of levered firms ) and intensive (the leverage ratio of levered firms ) margins. Changes in rm business risk have opposite effects on leverage, depending on whether the risk is of a systematic nature or firm-specific nature.

Three Problems of Liquidity under Asymmetric Information

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré

This thesis develops models for three problems of liquidity under asymmetric information. In the chapter "Disclosures, Rollover Risk, and Debt Runs" I build a model of dynamic debt runs without perfect information in order to understand the impact of asset opacity and disclosure policies on run likelihood and economic efficiency. I find that opacity is desirable with respect to both these metrics if and only if fundamentals are strong enough; and that a bank should commit to disclose truthfully any information it has unless the level of opacity is large. The model also uncovers rich interactions between debt dynamics, beliefs dynamics and equilibrium outcomes: short-term yields may remain low while risk builds up in the background, and therefore may not contain a warning sign of an upcoming crisis; and a disclosure regime might produce higher beliefs about collateral quality but nevertheless imply larger financing costs and thus lead to a bank failure. In the chapter "Short-term Bank Leverage and the Value of Liquid Reserves", we extend the modelling toolbox of the global games literature by providing a fully rational setup where liquid reserves are modeled explicitly. The banks' balance sheet decisions and the prices of all securities are endogenous in the model. A bank possesses two instruments to manage illiquidity risk: its funding policy and the size of its liquid asset holdings,modeled as government bonds. Higher short-term indebtness allows the bank to better capture the liquidity benefits priced into deposits but increases illiquidity risk. Holding more bonds makes the bank more robust to withdrawals but it reduces the bank's asset returns. The impact of an increase in bond supply on bank leverage depends on the general-equilibrium change in the cost of absorbing the supply. The model also illustrates how considering an endogenous leverage decision is key to predict the impact of the economic environment on the liquidity premium. In the chapter "Insider Trading under Penalties", we establish existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a generalised one-period Kyle (1985)model where insider trades can be subject to a size-dependent penalty. The result is obtained by considering uniform instead of Gaussian noise and holds for virtually any penalty function. We apply this result to regulation issues. We show that the penalty functions maximising price informativeness for given noise traders' losses eliminate small rather than large trades. We generalise this result to cases where a budget constraint distorts the set of penalties available to the regulator.

EPFL2019

Essays in Dynamic Corporate Finance

Francesca Maria Zucchi

This thesis examines the effects of financing frictions on corporate decisions using dynamic models. Accounting for financing frictions helps reconcile a number of regularities that are hard to explain within the Modigliani-Miller framework. For instance, financing frictions provide incentives for firms to keep liquidity on their balance sheets as a precautionary hedge---a pattern that has been heavily debated in light of the secular increase of cash-to-asset ratios of U.S. firms. The first chapter develops a model that investigates the relation between corporate policies and secondary stock market liquidity. I show that secondary market illiquidity limits a firm's ability to hold precautionary liquidity, exacerbates financial constraints, reduces investment, and decreases firm value. The model reproduces the positive relation between market liquidity and corporate cash holdings observed in the data. This relation might be surprising since firms with illiquid stocks, which have been documented to be more financially constrained than more liquid peers, should be willing to keep more precautionary cash. I also show that the illiquidity-driven drop in firm value can feed back into the secondary market by deterring the participation of liquidity providers, thereby making the market more illiquid. The self-reinforcing nature of this relation gives rise to an internal-external liquidity loop, which singles out a propagation mechanism between financial markets and the corporate sector. From a banking perspective, liquidity hoarding has been a hotly debated topic among academics and policy-makers in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The second chapter, which is a joint work with Prof. Erwan Morellec and Marco Della Seta, develops a dynamic model of the effects of liability structure and liquid reserves on banks' insolvency risk. When a bank relies on short-term debt financing, negative operating shocks get amplified as the bank weaker fundamentals also translate into losses when rolling over short-term debt. This amplification mechanism leads to an increase in default risk that gets more pronounced as debt maturity decreases and rollover losses increase. Because of this amplification mechanism, banks with identical debt ratios and liquid reserves but different debt structures have different default risk. Heavy exposure to rollover risk can also lead banks to implement gambling strategies when close to default. The third chapter, which is a joint work with Prof. Semyon Malamud, analyzes firms' optimal policies in a general equilibrium setting. It characterizes optimal liquidity management, innovation, and production decisions for a continuum of firms facing financing frictions and the threat of creative destruction. We show that liquidity constraints lead firms to cut production and increase markups, which are then countercyclical with respect to firm-specific shocks. We also illustrate that liquidity constraints may spur firms' investment in innovation and give rise to a non-monotonic cash-investment relation. We embed our single-firm dynamics in a Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth and demonstrate that financing frictions have a non-monotonic effect on economic growth and may increase aggregate consumption. When the corporate sector is constrained, liquidity injections by the government have real effects and can stimulate growth.

EPFL2015

Corporate Finance, Asset Returns, and Credit Risk

Philip Valta

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter empirically investigates how the intensity of product market competition affects the cost of debt. Using a large sample of loans to publicly traded US manufacturing firms, the chapter provides evidence that an intensification of product market competition among firms significantly increases the cost of bank loans. The analysis reveals that the effect is strongest in industries with high illiquidity and specificity of assets. This finding indicates that the liquidation value of assets is an important channel through which competition affects the cost of debt. Moreover, loans to firms that operate in more competitive industries contain more covenants restricting the firms' financing and dividend policies. Overall, the results suggest that banks explicitly take into account the risk arising from product market competition when pricing and designing debt contracts. The second chapter tests whether equity risk reflects the shareholders' incentives to default strategically on the firm's debt obligations. The chapter develops a model that relates shareholders' incentives to default strategically with the likelihood that debt renegotiations fail. Using an international cross-section of stocks to exploit the exogenous variation of insolvency procedures across countries and to test the model's predictions, the analysis reveals that the equity beta increases with the degree of creditor protection. Moreover, the equity beta decreases with the costs of liquidation and shareholders' bargaining power, and the sensitivity of this relationship weakens as country's creditor protection toughens. The results are economically important, and robust to various specifications and estimation techniques. The third chapter investigates how the debt structure and the strategic interaction between shareholders and creditors in the event of default affect expected stock returns. By endogenizing shareholders' decision to default, the model generates new predictions linking firm characteristics to expected stock returns through an intuitive economic mechanism. In particular, the model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties, and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Expected stock returns are lower for firms whose shareholders maintain strong bargaining power, and for firms subject to high liquidation costs. Using a large sample of publicly traded US firms between 1985 and 2005, the third chapter presents new evidence on the link between debt structure, renegotiation frictions, and stock returns, which is supportive of the model's predictions.

EPFL2010