Beyond the patch: on landscape-explicit metapopulation dynamics

Climate change threatens biodiversity and species distribution all over the world at unprecedented rates. Human induced changes to landscape structure and habitat are redefining the relation between species and their environment. Understanding, characterizing and modeling the relation between complex landscape features and geographical species presence, the subject of this thesis, have thus gained paramount importance in order to make informed decisions on near- and far-term management strategies for species and landscape protection.

The present thesis pays particular attention to the understanding of how mountain landscapes, described as heterogeneous habitat matrices, govern the presence of a species in space and time. To this end, throughout this thesis a metapopulation model is considered, a spatially-explicit model based on the balance between colonization and extinction events in areas of different suitability. The classical patch-based modelling approach is extended here in various ways in order to incorporate landscape-explicit information about the habitat matrix.

A first theoretical study is performed on geometric, realistic, and real landscapes which highlights how different levels of connectivity, the degree to which different areas of similar habitat are actually linked together in the landscape (say, derived from geomorphic structures, such as valleys and peaks or emerging structures shaped by fluvial erosion and tectonic uplift) impact the dynamic of mountain species under climate change. A second, applied, study investigates how different landscape descriptors derived from Earth Observation data can be used in order to dynamically model the spatial, landscape-explicit, presence of two carabid species (Pterostichus flavofemoratus and Carabus depressus) in the Gran Paradiso National Park. In a final study, the consistency of the metapopulation model is investigated when considering different resolutions of the landscape matrix, i.e. different levels of coarse-graining. This last part is fundamental to the understanding of how conclusions drawn from local studies can be made general and extrapolated to larger regions.

Overall, this thesis bridges the fields of population and landscape ecology, focusing on modelling metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes seen as the substrate for ecological interactions. The result from the three studies show that metapopulation ecology can profit from the insights of landscape ecology. The combination of the two fields can be a useful tool in furthering the understanding and monitoring of mountain species.

A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures

Enrico Bertuzzo, Jonathan Giezendanner, Damiano Pasetto, Andrea Rinaldo

A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.

2019

Dispersal modelling

Séverine Vuilleumier Varisco

In human-dominated landscapes, populations and species extinctions are directly related to habitat destruction and fragmentation. To provide genetic diversity as well as population viability, individual exchanges among isolated populations must be maintained. Therefore, animal dispersal processes in fragmented landscape become an important topic for ecologists, and ecological networks planning has become one of the major challenges for landscape planners. Identification of habitat patches as well as assessment of the effect of ecological networks is badly needed. Since little information on the effect of landscape heterogeneities on animal dispersal is available, simulation models are being developed. As dispersal pattern and success strongly depend on the spatial context, species' interactions with landscapes, species behaviour and species ability to disperse, these models must be able to simulate them explicitly. This research work therefore aims first at developing methods and models that allow realistic animal dispersal simulations in fragmented landscapes. Second it aims at evaluating the effect of landscape heterogeneities and animal behaviour on dispersal and on species persistence. Additionally, the ability of such a model to estimate gene flow is analysed. To carry on this research, the following fields have been explored: landscape ecology, metapopulation dynamic, animal behaviour, genetics, Geographical Information Systems, modelling approaches and programming. A method, based on properties provided by Geographical Information Systems software, is first proposed to generate ecological networks by simulating animal dispersal according to animal movement constraints induced by human infrastructures. The resulting maps provide a spatial identification of ecological networks, corridors and conflicting areas. This model has proved to be a useful and straightforward tool for landscape planning, even if this model, similar to other present-day models used in dispersal simulations, presents numerous technical and scientific limitations. To improve models for animal dispersal, a feature-oriented landscape model associated with an expert system has been developed. Its conceptualisation, its formalism, its data structure and its object-oriented design implementation provide a very accurate representation of landscape features and simulation of complex interactions between model entities (individuals and landscape features) based on simple rules. It allows the spatial identification of simulated processes. The ability of this model to incorporate states, relations and transition rules between entities makes it applicable to simulate large ranges of dispersal processes according to specific behaviour and/or landscape uses. To analyse the influence of landscape heterogeneities and species behaviour on dispersal and their incidence on metapopulation dynamics, the proposed feature-oriented model has been coupled with an animal model. The latter assigns different cognitive and dispersal abilities to individuals. Based on simulations according to three movement strategies (corresponding to the cognitive abilities of the simulated species), two measures evaluate the effect of cognitive abilities on dispersal: the colonisation probability between habitat patches and the ecological distance (due to landscape heterogeneities). These measures give an estimation of metapopulation structures (the habitat patches belonging to the metapopulation) and metapopulation dynamics induced by the landscape heterogeneities (for example, the habitat patches which release individuals). The complexity of dispersal processes, considering species behaviours and dispersal abilities, can therefore be reproduced and analysed at different levels. This application has shown the importance of animal behaviour on metapopulation dynamics and structure. Since tracking animals and providing sufficient data remain difficult, calibration and validation procedures of dispersal models are difficult to perform. One approach proposed here is to measure one of the consequences of dispersal: genetic differentiation among populations. Geographical distances are in general used to explain a part of the genetic differentiations. But as our fundamental assumption states that landscape heterogeneities and spatial arrangements of landscape features may strongly affect dispersal successes, genetic distance between populations must be better explained by the estimate of a model which considers these factors. We have tested this assumption with the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula). Scenarios considering various behaviours and dispersal abilities of C. russula have been performed. Relating measures of genetic, geographical and ecological distances (the latter emerge from scenario simulation results) highlights the model capability to reproduce dispersal of C. russula by explaining a greater part of the genetic differentiation than that explained by the geographical distances. This application has not only pointed out the ability of the model to quantify connectivity between habitat patches but also the difficulty to relate gene dispersal and individual dispersal.

EPFL2003

Earth and field observations underpin metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes: Near-term study on carabids

Jonathan Giezendanner, Damiano Pasetto, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Andrea Rinaldo

Understanding risks to biodiversity requires predictions of the spatial distribution of species adapting to changing ecosystems and, to that end, Earth observations integrating field surveys prove essential as they provide key numbers for assessing landscape-wide biodiversity scenarios. Here, we develop, and apply to a relevant case study, a method suited to merge Earth/field observations with spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models to study the near-term ecological dynamics of target species in complex terrains. Our framework incorporates the use of species distribution models for a reasoned estimation of the initial presence of the target species and accounts for imperfect and incomplete detection of the species presence in the study area. It also uses a metapopulation fitness function derived from Earth observation data subsuming the ecological niche of the target species. This framework is applied to contrast occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemoratus, Carabus depressus) observed in the context of a large ecological monitoring program carried out within the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP, Italy). Results suggest that the proposed framework may indeed exploit the hallmarks of spatially explicit ecological approaches and of remote Earth observations. The model reproduces well the observed in situ data. Moreover, it projects in the near term the two species’ presence both in space and in time, highlighting the features of the metapopulation dynamics of colonization and extinction, and their expected trends within verifiable timeframes.

2020

Dispersal modelling

Séverine Vuilleumier Varisco

EPFL2003