Publication

Dating Death: An Empirical Comparison of Medical Underwriters in the U.S. Life Settlements Market

Jiahua Xu
2020
Journal paper
Abstract

The value of a life settlement investment, manifested through a traded life insurance policy, is highly dependent on the insured's life expectancy (LE). LE estimation in life settlements relies heavily on medical underwriting. Employing different evaluation processes, underwriters rarely agree on LE estimates, leading to valuation disparities. We use the natural logarithm of the implied mortality multiplier (ln k) to compare the underwriting results of the four major U.S. medical underwriters (ITM, AVS, Fasano, and LSI). ln k is normalized in terms of gender, age, and smoking status, and is therefore a more suitable indicator than LE estimates for highlevel comparisons, especially when the compared groups have a heterogeneous make-up. Based on the analysis of life settlement samples from 2011 to 2016, we trace patterns of underwriters' ln k in both secondary and tertiary markets of life settlements, and investigate systematic differences in their estimation. Our results show that an underwriter can, relative to peers, act more conservatively (issuing longer LE estimates) for one cohort while more aggressively (issuing shorter LE estimates) for another. We also detect signs of intermediaries' cherry-picking behavior and discuss additional theories that shed light on the convoluted LE landscape.

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Related concepts (27)
Underwriting
Underwriting (UW) services are provided by some large financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies and investment houses, whereby they guarantee payment in case of damage or financial loss and accept the financial risk for liability arising from such guarantee. An underwriting arrangement may be created in a number of situations including insurance, issues of security in a public offering, and bank lending, among others. The person or institution that agrees to sell a minimum number of securities of the company for commission is called the underwriter.
Life insurance
Life insurance (or life assurance, especially in the Commonwealth of Nations) is a contract between an insurance policy holder and an insurer or assurer, where the insurer promises to pay a designated beneficiary a sum of money upon the death of an insured person (often the policyholder). Depending on the contract, other events such as terminal illness or critical illness can also trigger payment. The policyholder typically pays a premium, either regularly or as one lump sum.
Natural logarithm
The natural logarithm of a number is its logarithm to the base of the mathematical constant e, which is an irrational and transcendental number approximately equal to 2.718281828459. The natural logarithm of x is generally written as ln x, loge x, or sometimes, if the base e is implicit, simply log x. Parentheses are sometimes added for clarity, giving ln(x), loge(x), or log(x). This is done particularly when the argument to the logarithm is not a single symbol, so as to prevent ambiguity.
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