Model-based data analysis of the effect of winter mixing on primary production in a lake under reoligotrophication

Nutrient loading, in combination with climate change are important drivers of primary productivity in lakes. Understanding and forecasting future changes in primary production (PP) in response to local and global forcing are major challenges for developing sustainable lake management. The objective of this study is to understand and characterize the mechanisms underlying the large differences in observed PP rates and nutrient concentrations between two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in Lake Geneva, Switzerland. For this purpose, we apply a one-dimensional (1D) physical–biogeochemical model system. The Framework of Aquatic Biogeochemical models (FABM) interface is used to couple the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) with a biogeochemical model, the Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM). We calibrated GOTM, by adjusting physical parameters, with the observed temperature profiles. A model calibration method is implemented to minimize model-data misfits and to optimize the biological parameters related to phytoplankton growth dynamics. According to our results, the simulated surface mixed layer depth is deeper and heat loss from the lake and turbulent kinetic energy in the water column are much higher in winter 2012 than that in 2013, pointing to a cooling-driven, deep mixing in the lake in 2012. We found significant differences in internal phosphorus loads in the epilimnion between the two years, with estimates for 2012 being higher than those for 2013. ERGOM predicts weak nutrient limitation on phytoplankton and higher growth rates in 2012. Apparently, the deep mixing event led to high turnover of nutrients (particularly dissolved inorganic phosphate) to the productive surface layers, and a massive algal bloom developed later in the productive season. In contrary, the turnover of nutrients in 2013 was weak and consequently the PP was low. Our findings demonstrate the utility of a coupled physical–biological model framework for the investigation of the meteorological and physical controls of PP dynamics in aquatic systems.

Long-term changes in phytoplankton functional groups and primary production in Lake Geneva: A Modelling Approach

Emile Barbe

In this study, a hydrodynamical model is coupled to a biogeochemical model, and then used to simulate the main physical, chemical and biological characteristics of Lake Geneva. The study period, going from 1981 to 2016 was marked by two major changes with concomitant effects: re-oligotrophication by reducing the phosphorus loading and climate change. Thanks to the calibrated model, changes of the ecosystem related to climate change and re-oligotrophication were disentangled. It resulted in a positive effect of the former on phytoplankton biomass and primary production, and a negative effect of the latter. The combined effects of these two majors changes are negative. However, these results have a large uncertainty related to the capacity of the model to reproduce the biological characters of Lake Geneva. The calibration procedure must be improved to ensure a higher relevance of the results.

2020

Effects of climate change on deep-water oxygen and winter mixing in a deep lake (Lake Geneva)

Damien Bouffard, Robert Vincent Schwefel, Alfred Johny Wüest

Oxygen is the most important dissolved gas for lake ecosystems. Because low oxygen concentrations are an ongoing problem in many parts of the oceans and numerous lakes, oxygen depletion processes have been intensively studied over the last decades and were mainly attributed to high nutrient loads. Recently, climate-induced changes in stratification and mixing behavior were recognized as additional thread to hypolimnetic oxygen budgets in lakes and reservoirs [Matzinger et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2015]. Observational data of Lake Geneva, a deep perialpine lake situated between France and Switzerland showed no decreasing trend in hypoxia over the last 43 years, despite an impressive reduction in nutrient input during this period. Instead, hypoxic conditions were predominantly controlled by deep mixing end of winter and in turn by winter temperatures. To test the sensitivity of Lake Geneva on future climate change and changes in water transparency, we simulated the hydrodynamics and temperature of Lake Geneva under varying conditions for atmospheric temperature and water clarity performed with the one-dimensional model SIMSTRAT [Goudsmit, 2002]. The results show, that the stratification in lakes is only weakly affected by changes in light absorption due to varying water quality. For conditions expected for the end of the century, a decrease in the annual mean deep convective mixing of up to 45 m is predicted. Also complete mixing events over the whole lake are less likely to occur. A change in the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of up to 20% can thus be expected in the future. These results show, that changes in deep mixing have an equally strong impact as eutrophication on the deep-water oxygen development of oligomictic lakes and have to be considered in the prediction of the future development of lakes.

2016

Oxygen depletion in stratified lakes - why shallow and deep lakes react differently

Robert Vincent Schwefel, Alfred Johny Wüest

Oxygen is the most important element in natural waters for any higher aquatic life, such as fish. As with humans, almost all members of aquatic ecosystems need oxygen to breathe. Building on this, treatment of drinking water is easier for oxic than for anoxic water. Critical for hypoxic conditions in lakes are the deep waters during stagnation periods, typically during summer or warm/wet periods, when the water columns are density stratified. Then, the oxygen supply to the deep water is restrained and the decomposition of organic matter leads to oxygen depletion in the stratified deep layers. Especially in shallow lakes, the resulting oxygen removal can be drastic. In this presentation, we show how oxygen depletion mechanisms in lakes take place and how depletion is related to key processes such as primary productivity (via nutrient loading), molecular diffusion of oxygen into the sediment, molecular diffusion of reduced substances out of the sediment and, finally, the deep convective mixing in winter which refills the oxygen reservoirs of the deep layers. Here, we will clarify how these different processes affect the oxygen budget: primary production drives oxygen depletion directly, whereas lake morphology and external wind forcing influence the rate of depletion. Finally, climate change can affect the replenishment of oxygen in the deep water and thereby change the oxygen budget. The examples shown in this presentation will be set into the context of the water quality in Switzerland, which has gone through a rigorous improvement in the last 40 years.

2016