Design of a set of indicators suitable to help decision-making on energy strategies for Cuba

The goal of this Master thesis project was to design a methodology that helps to analyze a set of indicators that can support the decision-making process, by identifying energy strategies with a temporal horizon 2030-2050 in Cuba. Several sources of data and methodologies were used to fulfill the objective. The energy planning model created by Madrazo during her Ph.D. thesis was used as the main tool in this project. The hourly demand and the wind and solar capacity factors have been used as input data for this model. A post-processing module was created in R code, with the objective of analyzing the behavior of the six technical indicators that the model offers as output. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was used as an exploratory method to identify cluster that later allowed studying in detail the particular characteristics of these indicators. Different graphics were used to visualize the performance of the technical indicators under different conditions, which allows us to propose the best energy strategies to ensure a secure and sustainable energy transition. The methods of “Levelized cost of energy” (LCOE) and the costs associated with the "engineering process design" allowed to assess the economic feasibility of some scenarios of energy transition identified as interesting for decision making. The current cost of the Cuban electro-energetic system was estimated and compared with the costs obtained for future scenarios simulated. After analyzing the behavior of the indicators in detail, it was identified as the most suitable transition scenario for Cuba, where 150% demand is covered by 90% intermittent energy and 10% wind energy. Also, no backup will be required under these conditions, which represents a considerable saving from the current costs required by an electric generation with fossil resources. The energy storage needs will be 0.05 TWh, and the “concrete towers” and “VOSS” technologies can be used in order to minimize installation and operation costs of these facilities.

Alternative Methods for Assessing Air Quality and Energy Strategies for Developing Countries: A Case Study on Cuba

Jessie Madrazo Bacallao

The worldwide increasing energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuel which leads to a large number of environmental problems. Indeed, the combustion of fossil fuels releases into the atmosphere different greenhouse gases and harmful pollutants which are responsible for climate change and cause air quality degradation. Moreover, fossil fuel resources are limited and their depletion will happen sooner or later. Governments of the whole world are urged to take relevant measures and policies for energy transition. To support their choices, different decision support approaches have been developed, mainly in industrialized countries. However, these approaches usually lack coherent integration and rely on expensive and often unavailable detailed data, especially in developing countries. This PhD aims at developing alternative methods for the assessment of air quality and energy strategies in the framework of developing countries. The developed methods are implemented in Cuba which seems an excellent test case to design and apply energy strategies for developing countries. The first part of this work deals with methods intended to reliable assess air quality. For this purpose, an air pollution measurement campaign was carried out in Havana. It provided data to implement and improve a pre-existing methodology capable of estimating Cuban vehicle emission factors. Statistical analysis indicated that traffic accounted for around 50% of particular matter concentration levels. Furthermore, vehicles pre-1980s were identified as the most polluting technologies at the street level. This work also demonstrates the usability of an emission inventory designed for air quality simulations. Benchmarking tools developed in the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe helped to pinpoint differences between global and regional inventories, and identify where efforts should concentrate for improving emission data. This research also sets up simplified algebraic relationships (i.e. so-called Source-Receptor Relationship) capable of predicting the impacts on concentration levels resulting from regional emission abatement strategies, while being more time-efficient than traditional methods. The second part is dedicated to exploring scenarios for a reliable Cuban energy transition. To this end, the energy fluxes between resources, technologies and final demand were computed for the year 2015. A set of scenarios were then designed on the basis of different mixes of energy resources. These scenarios have been compared according to three criteria that seemed the most relevant for the country geopolitical and economic situation: energy security (degree of dependence from energy imports), sustainability of the energy resources and population exposure to harmful pollutants. Overall, the results indicated that energy security and sustainability increase with wind and solar penetration at different rates. A penetration rate of 20% of the demand significantly decreases fossil fuel requirements and imports. Once raised to 50%, Cuba can achieve complete energy independence. The scenario which fulfils 100% of the electricity demands from solar and wind resources shows the maximum of sustainability. Not surprisingly, the penetration of renewables had positive effects on air quality.

EPFL2018

Alternative Methods for Assessing Air Quality and Energy Strategies for Developing Countries: A Case Study on Cuba

Jessie Madrazo Bacallao

EPFL2018