Development of a Semi-distributed Hydrological Model for Glaciated Punatshangchu Basin in Bhutan

Hydropower plays a pivotal role in the socio-economic development of Bhutan where water resource is abundantly available and therefore several hydropower plants are being planned and a few under construction. However, with the presence of several potentially dangerous glacier lakes within the higher elevations, the country is always at the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and climate change which poses higher uncertainty regarding the sustainability of hydropower reservoirs in the long run. To understand the hydrological response of the basin, where new hydropower plants are going to be installed soon, a complex semi-distributed hydrological model has been prepared for the Punatshangchu basin using RS MINERVE. After calibration and validation of the model, it is observed that the model reflects low relative volume bias (-0.196 - 0.050) and high Nash efficiency (0.540 - 0.990) which is an important aspect to be considered for any hydropower dam and its operational schemes. Such a model is a viable tool well adapted to an operational flood forecasting system and management. With the built-in scheme for hydropower, reservoir, planner, and turbines within RS Minerve, it could be used to understand the array of scenarios for planning and operations.

Influence of dam operation on water resources management under different scenarios in the Zambezi River Basin considering environmental objectives and hydropower

Théodora Cohen Liechti

Worldwide, almost 50,000 dams over 15 m height have been built during the last six decades with an aggregated storage capacity of 6,000 km3. The fact that large dams, by increasing irrigation and hydroelectricity production, can sustain development and reduce poverty has led developing countries to undertake major investment in dam construction. However, scientific progress is required in order to design and manage the future complex hydrologic/hydraulic systems in sustainable ways. The African Dams project (ADAPT) aimed at enhancing the scientific basis of integrated water resource management. New models for the real-time control and multi- objective optimization of large hydraulic structures were created and data resources enhanced through field survey. The case study considered to apply this new knowledge is the Zambezi River basin located in southern Africa. It contains many of southern Africa’s largest and most intact freshwater and estuarine wetlands, e. g. the Kafue flats, the Mana Pools and the Zambezi delta as well as several free-flowing yet unprotected river reaches. Three of Africa’s largest dams (Kariba, Cahora Bassa and Kafue) inundate hundreds of square kilometers of river habitat and modify the natural flow patterns that sustain floodplains. Increasing human activity by cities and industry is causing a regional energy shortage, leading governments and investors to plan yet more dams in the basin. In the framework of the ADAPT project, the major contribution of the present research is to set-up a hydrologic-hydraulic model of the whole catchment area which includes all relevant elements as hydraulic structures and schemes as well as floodplains. The multi- objective modelling and simulation define how dam operation can be adapted to get the highest environmental results under highest energy production. Three main steps structure the project: (1) the evaluation of the quality of available input data, (2) the definition of the specific hydrological processes needed for hydraulic-hydrological modeling of the Zambezi Basin along with the establishment of a calibration outline, (3) the assessment of the impacts of the planned new hydraulic structures and the refurbishment of the existing hydropower plants on the flow regime at critical points of the basin. At first, three operational and acknowledged satellite derived precipitation products (the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission product 3B42 -TRMM 3B42-, the Famine Early Warning System product 2.0 -FEWS RFE2.0- and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Prediction Centre (NOAA/CPC) morphing technique -CMORPH-) are analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation. They are compared to ground data at daily, 10-daily and monthly time steps. Based on the results, TRMM 3B42 was chosen as input data for the hydrological modeling. Secondly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2009), a semi-distributed physically based continuous time model, was selected to simulate the hydrology of the basin. Due to the specificities of the Zambezi River basin, two main additional functions were developed. (1) A floodplain sub-model based on a reservoir approach was implemented. The model separates the outflow of the reservoir simulating the floodplain into main channel flow and flow over the floodplain area. (2) The hydropower plant operations are simulated based on the rule curve and the technical characteristics of the dams. The pertinence of the implemented approach was verified by modeling the existing hydropower plants. Given the complexity and the size of the basin, an automated calibration procedure based on A Multi- ALgorithm Genetically Adaptive Multi-objective method (AMALGAM) was applied to optimize the relative error and the volume ratio at multiple discharge stations. The observed volume at the artificial reservoir derived from the measured water level was included in the calibration. Thirdly, scenarios combining different levels of environmental requirements as well as multiple hydropower development schemes were simulated at a daily time step with the hydraulic-hydrological model. The hydropower operation rules are simulated in detail. The mean annual energy produced, the firm power and the spilled volume during flood season are computed for each scenario. The impact on flow regime is characterized by Pardé coefficients, a set of indicators based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) and duration curves. In a global perspective, the analysis shows that it is possible to reach a compromise between energy production and environmental sustainability. Finally, the data of two Global Circulation Models (GFDL-CM2.0 and CCCma- CGCM3) for the emission scenario SRES A2 of the IPCC report were used to simulate the hydrological input during 2045-2065 and 2080-2100 periods. The prediction of the climate models diverge in terms of precipitation as GFDL-CM2.0 forecasts an increase while CCCma-CGCM3 a diminution but agree on the increase of temperature. The impacts of climate change were assessed both on energy production and flow pattern changes. The development and application of a hydraulic-hydrological model to a large river basin in a context of data scarcity and particular hydrologic units is particularly important for water resource management. The use of open source data and adapted calibration tools allows operators, authorities and researchers to assess together the impacts of hydropower development.

EPFL2013

Uncertain climate change impact on hydropower production in the Swiss Alps

André Musy, Bettina Schaefli

This study addresses two major challenges in the field of climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: i) incorporation of the largest possible range of potential climate change scenarios and ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The developed methodology of climate change impact modelling is presented and illustrated through an application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierized catchment. This case study has been chosen because it represents an area of water resources management highly vulnerable to climate change and because in Switzerland, hydropower represents about 75 % of consumed electricity. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1960 – 1989) and for the future period (2070 – 2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of 4 model types including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent to each model type are characterized and quantified. The obtained results show a statistically significant climate change impact on the hydrological regime: It shifts from the current so-called a-glacier regime (maximum monthly discharge in July and August) to a so-called nival type (maximum monthly discharge in June). Additionally, the total annual runoff undergoes a significant reduction due to the increase of temperature and evapotranspiration, decrease of precipitation and decrease of the glaciated catchment area. As a result, the system performance of the hydropower production plant decreases significantly.

2005

Operation of Complex Hydropower Schemes and its Impact on the Flow Regime in the Downstream River System under Changing Scenarios

Martin Peter Bieri

Hydropower is the world’s most important renewable electricity source. More than 40% of European hydroelectric energy is produced in Alpine countries. High-head storage hydropower plants (HPP) contribute significantly to peak energy production as well as electricity grid regulation. Future plant management is faced with several challenges concerning modified availability of water resources due to climate change as well as new economic constraints associated with legal, political and electricity market issues. HPP operation results in unsteady water release to the downstream river system. Hydropeaking is the primary factor of flow regime alteration, impacting the river ecosystem. Even when the biological response to hydropeaking is not fully understood, the recently adapted law on water protection prescribes its mitigation in Switzerland. In this research project, a novel integrative approach to model and assess the impact of the operation of a complex hydropower scheme on the downstream river system is developed. It contains (1) a precipitation-runoff model extended for long-term simulations of glacierized Alpine catchment areas, (2) an operation tool for high-head storage HPP, (3) flow regime generation with cost estimation of hydropeaking mitigation measures and (4) a habitat model of reference river morphologies for a target species. The upper Aare River (Hasliaare) in Switzerland is an Alpine stream, affected by hydropeaking from a complex hydropower scheme with several storage volumes and power houses. Since the 1930s, seasonal water transfer from summer to winter and the amplitude and frequency of daily peak discharge have been continuously increased. Furthermore, the dynamic braided river network with various mesohabitats gave way to a mainly monotonous channel. Although diversity of species and biomass of aquatic biota have drastically decreased, the potential of redevelopment remains. Investigations to improve the river morphology and the flow regime are under discussion. The upper Aare River catchment is therefore an appropriate case study for analysis of the interactions between climatic, hydrological, hydraulic, economic as well as ecological parameters. The simulation of runoff in Alpine catchment areas is essential for optimal hydropower exploitation under normal flow conditions, but also for the analysis of flood events. The semi-distributed conceptual modeling approach Routing System contains a reservoir-based precipitation-runoff transformation model (GSM-SOCONT), extended by dynamic glacier simulation tool. Spatial precipitation and temperature distributions are taken into account for simulating the relevant hydrological processes, such as glacier melt, snowpack constitution and melt, soil infiltration and runoff. The model development, calibration and validation are illustrated for the 2005 flood event, where the flood reduction capacity of the HPP is discussed, as well as future long-term runoff estimations. Climate change scenarios, based on a reference climate period, take into account intra-annual temperature and precipitation variations as well as their long-term tendencies. Runoff series of daily resolution are produced by hourly updating of the meteorological, glaciological and hydrological parameters. An almost complete deglacierization of the upper Aare River basin is simulated for the late 21st century. The resulting reduction of glacier melt in summer and earlier snowmelt in spring change the runoff regime from glacio-nival to nival. The implemented heuristic hydropower modeling tool in Routing System allows simulation of the operating mode of complex HPP. Within the case study of the upper Aare River catchment and despite the complexity of the HPP network, the influence of climate change, electricity market issues, plant enhancements as well as hydropeaking constraints is simulated and assessed. Despite the reduction of future runoff, increased flexibility due to new turbine and pumped-storage capacities allows compensation, especially in the case of volatile electricity prices, and could even partially restore the natural flow regime. Several operational and construction measures to reduce hydropeaking are implemented in the model. Resulting flow regimes as well as the related costs are defined. Operational constraints, such as limitation of turbine discharge, increase of residual flow or limited drawdown range, generate relatively high costs compared to their environmental effectiveness. Better ecological and economic response is achieved by construction measures, such as flow deviation systems or compensation basins installed downstream of the power house outflow where the water is temporarily stored and then released to the river by a guided system. The simulated flow regimes are rated by a river specific habitat model for representative morphologies and three life stages of the target species brown trout (Salmo trutta fario). This is based on results from a 2D hydrodynamic model and in situ investigations undertaken in the framework of a joint project of EAWAG. Steady and dynamic indicators quantify fish habitat suitability and allow comparison through economic indices of the implemented mitigation measures. For the Hasliaare River, investments for mitigation of hydropeaking are only justified by morphological improvements. The developed approach is useful for the enhancement of complex storage hydropower schemes regarding mitigation of altered flow regimes. Despite several uncertainties, it allows operators, authorities and researchers to define and rate the impact of HPP operation on the river network, to ecologically and economically assess mitigation measures and thus to address hydropeaking in a straightforward manner.