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A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications

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Predicting the stressed expected loss of large US banks

Eric Jondeau, Amir Hossein Khalilzadeh Naghneh

We develop a methodology to measure the expected loss of commercial banks in a market downturn, which we call stressed expected loss (SEL). We simulate a market downturn as a negative shock on interest rate and credit market risk factors that reflect the b ...

ELSEVIER2022

This thesis examines how banks choose their optimal capital structure and cash reserves in the presence of regulatory measures. The first chapter, titled Bank Capital Structure and Tail Risk, presents a bank capital structure model in which bank assets a ...

EPFL2021

Mean-Covariance Robust Risk Measurement

Daniel Kuhn, Damir Filipovic, Viet Anh Nguyen, Soroosh Shafieezadeh Abadeh

We introduce a universal framework for mean-covariance robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization. We model uncertainty in terms of the Gelbrich distance on the mean-covariance space, along with prior structural information about the population dis ...

2021

Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking

Erwan Morellec, Francesca Maria Zucchi

We challenge the view that short-term debt curbs moral hazard and demonstrate that, in a world with financing frictions and fair debt pricing, short-term debt generates incentives for risk-taking. To do so, we develop a model in which firms are financed wi ...

ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA2020

This thesis develops three models that study the motivation of various agents to take on debt, and the impact that excessive financial leverage can have on social welfare. In the chapter "Short-term Bank Leverage and the Value of Liquid Reserves", the ince ...

EPFL2019

Linear credit risk models

Damir Filipovic, Damien Edouard Ackerer

We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors. The price of a CDS ...

2019

The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Levy stochastic processes

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré, Daniel Cohen

Governments choose to issue risky or riskless debt depending on the nature of the stochastic process of output. We use Brownian motion and Poisson shocks a modeling method in the literature on corporate default known as Levy processes to approximate a deco ...

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV2019

The CDS-bond basis

Pierre Collin Dufresne

We investigate the cross-sectional variation in the credit default swap (CDS)-bond bases and test explanations for the violation of the arbitrage relation between cash bond and CDS contract, which states that the basis should be zero in normal conditions. ...

WILEY2019

Spatial Risk Measures and Rate of Spatial Diversification

Erwan Fabrice Koch

An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a corresponding set of axioms ...

2019

Improved Credit Bounds for the Credit-Based Shaper in Time-Sensitive Networking

Jean-Yves Le Boudec, Eleni Stai, Ehsan Mohammadpour

In Time-Sensitive Networking (TSN), it is important to formally prove per-flow latency and backlog bounds. To this end, recent works have applied network calculus and obtained latency bounds from service curves. The latency component of such service curves ...

2019