Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Luca Pozzoli, Julia Schmale
2022
Journal paper

Abstract

While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO ), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.

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Luca Pozzoli, Julia Schmale
2022
Journal paper

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/294046?ln=en

About this result

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Long-range transport of pollution to Europe

Marion Auvray

Ozone (O3) and aerosols are harmful to human health. Long-range transport sources contribute to the background levels upon which local pollution builds. The goal of this thesis is to describe and quantify the respective contribution of local and long-range transported sources to the O3 and aerosol budget in the framework of European air quality management. This issue is examined using a global model of chemistry and transport, the GEOS-Chem model, constrained by several experimental datasets (e.g. trace gases and aerosol distributions, aerosol optical depth, particulate matter concentrations) taken from field experiments, ground-based sites and satellite. The capabilities of the model to reproduce O3 and aerosol patterns is first examined. The model reproduces well in general the distribution of O3 and related species over the North Atlantic/Europe area. The simulation of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over Europe is also satisfying in general, but this may reflect some compensating errors between individual components (e.g. underestimate of organic matter, and overestimate of sulphate and dust). Intercomparison between the GEOS-Chem and another global model (MOZECH) also reveals possible problems in the water vapour distribution associated with the processes which drive the vertical lifting of pollutant over continental boundary layers. Despite these (relative) deficiencies, the model provides anyway insights about the contribution of long-range transport on the O3 and aerosol loads over Europe. The impact of continental outflow on the O3 chemical tendencies over oceanic regions is quantified. Net O3 photochemical production in polluted air masses travelling over oceanic areas under the influence of continental outflow is enhanced all-year round compared to the background marine environment by 2 to 6 ppbv/day in the boundary layer and by 1 to 3 ppbv/day in the upper troposphere. The origin of O3 long-range sources and their impact on the European O3 budget, as well as the role of changing emissions on this budget over the pasts decades is further investigated. Import of North American O3 into Europe is mainly controlled by meteorological patterns and by photochemical production over the North Atlantic and thus reaches a maximum in summer. In addition, Asia contributes to long-range transported O3 pollution by the Indian summer monsoon easterly winds during summer. During the monsoon period, convection is strong and associated NOx lightning emissions also contribute to high O3 levels, especially in the Mediterranean basin. North American and Asian anthropogenic pollution contribute substantially to the annual O3 burden (integrated over the whole tropospheric column) over Europe, accounting for 11% and 8%, respectively while the European contribution only accounts for 9%. The increase in Asian emissions from 1980 to 1997 have compensated the local reduction of O3 precursors, especially in the free troposphere. Finally, the aerosol load over Europe and the contribution of long and medium-range sources including anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution from North America and mineral dust from North Africa is examined. The model was used to interpret MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) AOD and observations provided by the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) campaign over the North Atlantic and European area. Trans-Atlantic transport of aerosol is controlled by meteorological patterns and scavenging processes and reaches a maximum in spring. North American uxes of aerosols reach Europe at flower altitudes than that of O3 because a larger fraction of aerosols are scavenged in the venting from the boundary layer by frontal passages and deep convection. During high vegetation fire events in the boreal forest of Alaska and Canada, biomass burning pollution could also reach Europe at high altitudes, because a fraction of fire emissions are emitted directly in the free troposphere. Finally, the Saharan region also contributes significantly to the aerosol load over Europe. European sources contribute by 58% and 48% to the surface PM2.5 and column AOD over Europe. The second main sources are the mineral dust which represent in average 20% of the surface PM2.5 and AOD. In summer, North American anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions represent between 2 to 5% of the surface PM2.5 and AOD. The PM2.5 daily standard levels of the World Health organization (WHO) (10 μg/m3) and of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (65 μg/m3) are often exceeded during dust outbreaks, especially in southern Europe. Long-range transport of anthropogenic and natural pollution is thus an important issue which should be considered in the definition of air quality standards and regulation treaties.

EPFL2006

Modeling study of the interannual variability in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane concentrations over the last two decades

Jérôme Drevet

Methane (CH4) is a major greenhouse gas whose global warming potential is 23 times more important than carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 concentrations have steadily increased since the beginning of the industrial era, reaching an unprecedent level (almost 1800 ppb at present times). CH4 is currently considered as a one of the major driver of the climate change and its warming potential has leaded the Kyoto protocol to plan a significative reduction of its emissions. The objective of this thesis is to examine the factors that contribute to the CH4 global budget as well as its year-to-year variations. To that purpose, we have implemented a methane simulation in a global model of chemistry and transport. Conducting a CH4 simulation requires a comprehensive set of interannual varying CH4 emission inventories as well as a year-to-year varying 3-D fields of concentrations of hydroxyl radicals (OH) that is the main sink for CH4. The first part of this thesis examines the OH interannual variation, using results from a "full-chemistry" simulation that accounts for interannual variations in emissions of the main O3 precursors (including carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and hydrocarbons) as well as the year-to-year variation in meteorology (e.g. atmospheric water vapor content), lightning emissions, and overhead O3 column. We calculated a global OH concentration of 1.22×106 molec cm-3 averaged over the period. We find that global OH concentrations steadily increased during the early 90's by 8% and reached a maximum in 1997. Afterward, concentrations decrease by 5%. We find that changes in water vapor concentrations, anthropogenic emissions of CO and NOx, lightning NOx emissions, and overhead ozone column all play a role in driving the OH year-to-year variations. The relative contributions of these parameters depend on the latitudinal and altitudinal regions of the troposphere. We examine in particular the influence of the 1997-1998 ENSO on the global OH concentrations. We find that the 1997-1998 ENSO resulted in a large increase in OH in the tropical areas and in the extra-tropical areas of the northern hemisphere (largely driven by an increase in water vapor) while it leads to a decrease in OH in the extra-tropical region of the southern hemisphere (that results from changes in the transport pathways that bring CO in the most southern latitudes and deplete OH). Our results (in terms of OH variability) are in contradiction to those found by other methods, especially those using inverse modeling approaches that are based on methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) observations. This may results from poorly constrained sources. We then seek to implement a comprehensive set of CH4 emissions in our global model. We used anthropogenic CH4 emission data set of anthropogenic emissions from the International Institute of Technology (IIASA) whose emissions vary between 250 and 290 Tg/year between 1990 and 2000. We estimated biomass burning emissions, derived from an inventory of the total annual biomass burned area and emission factors that we constrained with measurements of the isotopic composition of atmospheric methane. This results in a global emissions rate of 60 Tg/year, which is much stronger than most of previous studies. We also developed a wetland scheme that accounts for soil carbon content, wetland fraction areas, soil temperature and humidity (with the three latter parameters varying interannually) and we evaluated the wetland areas with satellite-based estimates. Our global wetland emissions amount to about 150 Tg/year. We find a global CH4 lifetime of 10.6 years, which is in the range of values reported in previous studies. Comparing our results with different set of measurements gives promising results. The model reproduces well the year-to-year variation even if it slightly overestimates concentrations after 2000. By conducting different set of sensitivity simulations, we investigated the role of different parameters on the CH4 variations. We find that the long-term trend in CH4 is driven by a competition between anthropogenic emissions and tropospheric decay. Peaks of growth rate are driven by biomass burning emissions and to a lesser extend, wetland emissions. We find that even if we used increasing anthropogenic emissions during the 90s (that is in contradiction with some previous studies), reconstructing the observed year-to-year variation of CH4 concentrations was possible if one considers an increasing in OH during the 90s.

EPFL2008

The fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) unambiguously indicates that the climate is changing. Climate change is induced by changes in atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols, solar radiation and land surface properties, which all alter the radiative balance of the Earth. Among them, greenhouse gases and aerosols are likely the compounds affecting the climate the most. While greenhouse gases warm the Earth, aerosols influence its radiative balance by scattering and absorbing solar radiation (the direct effect), and by modifying cloud amount and properties (the indirect effect). The radiative forcing of aerosols on the climate is however the less understood among the various forcings currently considered in the IPCC assessment. This is likely related to the lack of comprehensive and accurate observations of aerosols (and in particular of their vertical distribution) which thus makes global aerosol models difficult to constrain. Recent model intercomparisons have indicated that different assumptions regarding aerosol emissions, formation and growing properties, and removal processes generate large diversities within models. These large diversities are found in particular in the Arctic and the upper troposphere region where extreme surrounding conditions take place, limiting instrument sensitivity and accuracy. The objectives of this thesis are to better quantify the processes driving the aerosol distribution in regions where the uncertainties are the largest, including the Arctic region and the upper troposphere, and to assess the quality of CALIOP observations. For this purpose, we used the fully coupled global climate-aerosol-chemistry ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model conjointly with a suite of remote sensing observations including the CALIOP satellite instrument, which provides the vertical distribution of aerosols. The model predicts the size distribution and composition of aerosols as well as the number concentration of cloud droplets and ice crystals. We first investigated the processes that drive the transport of soluble and insoluble compounds toward the Arctic in the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model. Recognizing that scavenging processes may be an issue in global models, we "re-visited" their properties in ECHAM5-HAMMOZ. We find that the model better reproduces the aerosol vertical distribution in the northern mid- and high-latitudes, especially in the free troposphere, by decreasing aerosol scavenging coefficients in the model. Using smaller aerosol scavenging coefficients results in an increase of aerosol burden and lifetime, especially in the Arctic. In addition, the Arctic haze phenomenon is better represented in the simulation using decreased aerosol scavenging coefficients. The relative contributions of different processes governing the transport of aerosols from the midlatitudes toward the Arctic together with the relative contributions of different geopolitical source regions were then quantified. We find that Europe and Siberia contribute the most to the Arctic pollution even though Asian anthropogenic emissions are much larger. The model suggests that BC emitted in Siberia and Europe is ten times more efficiently deposited onto the Arctic than BC emitted in Asia. We next investigated an aerosol layer that forms in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the southern Asian and Indian Ocean region. Aerosols in this layer are observed with the CALIOP instrument even though ice clouds partly mask their signal. The aerosol layer follows the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which indicates that these aerosols are likely transported during convective processes. The ECHAM5.5-HAM2 model reproduces such an aerosol layer in the TTL over the same region but clearly overestimates CALIOP data. Model results suggest that aerosols in this layer are mostly sulfate particles transported during convective processes and originating from natural sources. The shortwave forcing of this aerosol layer is estimated. Finally, we assessed the accuracy of aerosol extinction retrievals from the CALIOP satellite instrument by comparing them with remote sensing observations such as AERONET, MODIS and MISR over the last four years. Overall, standard CALIOP products underestimate by 50% observed aerosol extinctions. However, this comparison is substantially improved by screening CALIOP data. The comparison of the CALIOP screened product with the ECHAM5.5-HAM2 model shows large disparities in model results. The model reproduces quite well the observed interannual variability and vertical distribution of aerosols in Europe and North Africa while it underestimates them in America and Asia. This is likely due to an underestimate of dust and anthropogenic emissions in North America and Asia.

EPFL2012