Predicting in Uncertain Environments: Methods for Robust Machine Learning

One of the main goal of Artificial Intelligence is to develop models capable of providing valuable predictions in real-world environments. In particular, Machine Learning (ML) seeks to design such models by learning from examples coming from this same environment. However, the real world is most of the time not static, and the environment in which the model will be used can differ from the one in which it is trained. It is hence desirable to design models that are robust to changes of environments. This encapsulates a large family of topics in ML, such as adversarial robustness, meta-learning, domain adaptation and others, depending on the way the environment is perturbed.In this dissertation, we focus on methods for training models whose performance does not drastically degrade when applied to environments differing from the one the model has been trained in. Various types of environmental changes will be treated, differing in their structure or magnitude. Each setup defines a certain kind of robustness to certain environmental changes, and leads to a certain optimization problem to be solved. We consider 3 different setups, and propose algorithms for solving each associated problem using 3 different types of methods, namely, min-max optimization (Chapter 2), regularization (Chapter 3) and variable selection (Chapter 4).Leveraging the framework of distributionally robust optimization, which phrases the problem of robust training as a min-max optimization problem, we first aim to train robust models by directly solving the associated min-max problem. This is done by exploiting recent work on game theory as well as first-order sampling algorithms based on Langevin dynamics. Using this approach, we propose a method for training robust agents in the scope of Reinforcement Learning.We then treat the case of adversarial robustness, i.e., robustness to small arbitrary perturbation of the model's input. It is known that neural networks trained using classical optimization methods are particularly sensitive to this type of perturbations. The adversarial robustness of a model is tightly connected to its smoothness, which is quantified by its so-called Lipschitz constant. This constant measures how much the model's output changes upon any bounded input perturbation. We hence develop a method to estimate an upper bound on the Lipschitz constant of neural networks via polynomial optimization, which can serve as a robustness certificate against adversarial attacks. We then propose to penalize the Lipschitz constant during training by minimizing the 1-path-norm of the neural network, and we develop an algorithm for solving the resulting regularized problem by efficiently computing the proximal operator of the 1-path-norm term, which is non-smooth and non-convex.Finally, we consider a scenario where the environmental changes can be arbitrary large (as opposed to adversarial robustness), but need to preserve a certain causal structure. Recent works have demonstrated interesting connections between robustness and the use of causal variables. Assuming that certain mechanisms remain invariant under some change of the environment, it has been shown that knowing the underlying causal structure of the data at hand allows to train models that are invariant to such changes. Unfortunately, in many cases, the causal structure is unknown. We thus propose a causal discovery algorithm from observational data in the case of non-linear additive model.