Model output statisticsIn weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors. The predictors are typically forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, climatic data, and, if applicable, recent surface observations.
Health educationHealth education is a profession of educating people about health. Areas within this profession encompass environmental health, physical health, social health, emotional health, intellectual health, and spiritual health, as well as sexual and reproductive health education. Health education can be defined as the principle by which individuals and groups of people learn to behave in a manner conducive to the promotion, maintenance, or restoration of health.
Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionThe Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC; ) is an institution directly under the National Health Commission, based in Changping District, Beijing, China. Established in 1983, it works to protect public health and safety by providing information to enhance health decisions, and to promote health through partnerships with provincial health departments and other organizations.
Met OfficeThe Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and is led by CEO Penelope Endersby, who took on the role as Chief Executive in December 2018 and is the first woman to do so. The Met Office makes meteorological predictions across all timescales from weather forecasts to climate change.
Disease burdenDisease burden is the impact of a health problem as measured by financial cost, mortality, morbidity, or other indicators. It is often quantified in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Both of these metrics quantify the number of years lost due to disability (YLDs), sometimes also known as years lost due to disease or years lived with disability/disease.
Air pollution forecastingAir pollution forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the composition of the air pollution in the atmosphere for a given location and time. An algorithm prediction of the pollutant concentrations can be translated into air quality index, same as actual measurements. Countries and cities are given forecasts by state and local government organizations, as well as private companies like Airly, AirVisual, Aerostate, Ambee, BreezoMeter, PlumeLabs, and DRAXIS that provide air pollution forecasts.
Nonhomogeneous Gaussian regressionNon-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) is a type of statistical regression analysis used in the atmospheric sciences as a way to convert ensemble forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. Relative to simple linear regression, NGR uses the ensemble spread as an additional predictor, which is used to improve the prediction of uncertainty and allows the predicted uncertainty to vary from case to case. The prediction of uncertainty in NGR is derived from both past forecast errors statistics and the ensemble spread.
Response modeling methodologyResponse modeling methodology (RMM) is a general platform for statistical modeling of a linear/nonlinear relationship between a response variable (dependent variable) and a linear predictor (a linear combination of predictors/effects/factors/independent variables), often denoted the linear predictor function. It is generally assumed that the modeled relationship is monotone convex (delivering monotone convex function) or monotone concave (delivering monotone concave function).
Delphi methodThe Delphi method or Delphi technique (ˈdɛlfaɪ ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.
Exponential smoothingExponential smoothing is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for making some determination based on prior assumptions by the user, such as seasonality. Exponential smoothing is often used for analysis of time-series data.
