A whole systems approach to modelling low carbon urban heat provision

The dense heat demand of cities provides a challenging environment for developing low carbon heating. Deployment of a mix of technologies will be needed at both an individual building level and a district level, using heat networks in high demand areas to open up options for waste heat and combined heat and power plants. This paper uses the UK as a case study to argue that a systems-thinking approach is vital for considering urban heat provision. Scenario modelling is increasingly used by decision makers to understand the long-term implications of policies. However, scenarios largely focus on techno-economic aspects and do not capture important barriers to heat, including infrastructure planning and investment, the regulation of the heat market, and the perceptions of consumers and investors. This paper proposes a methodology that aims to integrate the social, technological and economic aspects of the urban heat system to more effectively inform decision makers for a transition to low carbon heating.