Predictive modellingPredictive modelling uses statistics to predict outcomes. Most often the event one wants to predict is in the future, but predictive modelling can be applied to any type of unknown event, regardless of when it occurred. For example, predictive models are often used to detect crimes and identify suspects, after the crime has taken place. In many cases, the model is chosen on the basis of detection theory to try to guess the probability of an outcome given a set amount of input data, for example given an email determining how likely that it is spam.
Posterior predictive distributionIn Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. Given a set of N i.i.d. observations , a new value will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space. It may seem tempting to plug in a single best estimate for , but this ignores uncertainty about , and because a source of uncertainty is ignored, the predictive distribution will be too narrow.
Exponential distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. It is a particular case of the gamma distribution. It is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless. In addition to being used for the analysis of Poisson point processes it is found in various other contexts.
Errors and residualsIn statistics and optimization, errors and residuals are two closely related and easily confused measures of the deviation of an observed value of an element of a statistical sample from its "true value" (not necessarily observable). The error of an observation is the deviation of the observed value from the true value of a quantity of interest (for example, a population mean). The residual is the difference between the observed value and the estimated value of the quantity of interest (for example, a sample mean).
Newton polynomialIn the mathematical field of numerical analysis, a Newton polynomial, named after its inventor Isaac Newton, is an interpolation polynomial for a given set of data points. The Newton polynomial is sometimes called Newton's divided differences interpolation polynomial because the coefficients of the polynomial are calculated using Newton's divided differences method. Given a set of k + 1 data points where no two xj are the same, the Newton interpolation polynomial is a linear combination of Newton basis polynomials with the Newton basis polynomials defined as for j > 0 and .
TicA tic is a sudden and repetitive motor movement or vocalization that is not rhythmic and involves discrete muscle groups. It is typically brief, and may resemble a normal behavioral characteristic or gesture. Tics can be invisible to the observer, such as abdominal tensing or toe crunching. Common motor and phonic tics are, respectively, eye blinking and throat clearing.
Cross-covarianceIn probability and statistics, given two stochastic processes and , the cross-covariance is a function that gives the covariance of one process with the other at pairs of time points. With the usual notation for the expectation operator, if the processes have the mean functions and , then the cross-covariance is given by Cross-covariance is related to the more commonly used cross-correlation of the processes in question.
Average absolute deviationThe average absolute deviation (AAD) of a data set is the average of the absolute deviations from a central point. It is a summary statistic of statistical dispersion or variability. In the general form, the central point can be a mean, median, mode, or the result of any other measure of central tendency or any reference value related to the given data set. AAD includes the mean absolute deviation and the median absolute deviation (both abbreviated as MAD). Several measures of statistical dispersion are defined in terms of the absolute deviation.
Hermite polynomialsIn mathematics, the Hermite polynomials are a classical orthogonal polynomial sequence. The polynomials arise in: signal processing as Hermitian wavelets for wavelet transform analysis probability, such as the Edgeworth series, as well as in connection with Brownian motion; combinatorics, as an example of an Appell sequence, obeying the umbral calculus; numerical analysis as Gaussian quadrature; physics, where they give rise to the eigenstates of the quantum harmonic oscillator; and they also occur in some cases of the heat equation (when the term is present); systems theory in connection with nonlinear operations on Gaussian noise.
Cross-correlationIn signal processing, cross-correlation is a measure of similarity of two series as a function of the displacement of one relative to the other. This is also known as a sliding dot product or sliding inner-product. It is commonly used for searching a long signal for a shorter, known feature. It has applications in pattern recognition, single particle analysis, electron tomography, averaging, cryptanalysis, and neurophysiology. The cross-correlation is similar in nature to the convolution of two functions.
