Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionThe Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC; ) is an institution directly under the National Health Commission, based in Changping District, Beijing, China. Established in 1983, it works to protect public health and safety by providing information to enhance health decisions, and to promote health through partnerships with provincial health departments and other organizations.
Model output statisticsIn weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors. The predictors are typically forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, climatic data, and, if applicable, recent surface observations.
PandemicA pandemic (paen'dEmIk ) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide. Throughout human history, there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as smallpox.
COVID-19 misinformationFalse information, including intentional disinformation and conspiracy theories, about the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic and the origin, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease has been spread through social media, text messaging, and mass media. False information has been propagated by celebrities, politicians, and other prominent public figures. Many countries have passed laws against "fake news", and thousands of people have been arrested for spreading COVID-19 misinformation.
Emerging infectious diseaseAn emerging infectious disease (EID) is an infectious disease whose incidence has increased recently (in the past 20 years), and could increase in the near future. The minority that are capable of developing efficient transmission between humans can become major public and global concerns as potential causes of epidemics or pandemics. Their many impacts can be economic and societal, as well as clinical. EIDs have been increasing steadily since at least 1940.
Nonhomogeneous Gaussian regressionNon-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) is a type of statistical regression analysis used in the atmospheric sciences as a way to convert ensemble forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. Relative to simple linear regression, NGR uses the ensemble spread as an additional predictor, which is used to improve the prediction of uncertainty and allows the predicted uncertainty to vary from case to case. The prediction of uncertainty in NGR is derived from both past forecast errors statistics and the ensemble spread.
Demand forecastingDemand forecasting refers to the process of predicting the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time. More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analytics to estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing business profitability through efficient supply chain management. Demand forecasting methods are divided into two major categories, qualitative and quantitative methods.
MeteorologistA meteorologist is a scientist who studies and works in the field of meteorology aiming to understand or predict Earth's atmospheric phenomena including the weather. Those who study meteorological phenomena are meteorologists in research, while those using mathematical models and knowledge to prepare daily weather forecasts are called weather forecasters or operational meteorologists. Meteorologists work in government agencies, private consulting and research services, industrial enterprises, utilities, radio and television stations, and in education.
COVID-19 vaccineA COVID19 vaccine is a vaccine intended to provide acquired immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19). Prior to the COVID19 pandemic, an established body of knowledge existed about the structure and function of coronaviruses causing diseases like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). This knowledge accelerated the development of various vaccine platforms during early 2020.
Forecast errorIn statistics, a forecast error is the difference between the actual or real and the predicted or forecast value of a time series or any other phenomenon of interest. Since the forecast error is derived from the same scale of data, comparisons between the forecast errors of different series can only be made when the series are on the same scale. In simple cases, a forecast is compared with an outcome at a single time-point and a summary of forecast errors is constructed over a collection of such time-points.
