Swiss tourism in the age of climate change : vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and barriers to adaptation

This thesis analyses the impacts of climate change on Swiss tourism. It looks in particular at the regional vulnerability, adaptation, and barriers that hinder this process. The final goal of the work is to make a contribution in bringing about a smoother shift to a more sustainable tourism sector better adapted to the changing conditions. In the first part, the thesis examines the regional vulnerability of Swiss tourism to climate change for a 2030-2050 time horizon in order to define which regions are most in need of taking action. We analyzed in particular the impacts generated by changes in climate suitability for tourism activities, snowpack reduction, glaciers melting, permafrost melting, natural hazards, water scarcity, and changes in landscape and scenic beauty. We selected 70 indicators describing the exposure, the sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of each of the 85 defined areas. We collected, weighted and assembled simulations on the possible impacts and statistical data covering the whole country. The results obtained allowed us to identify the most important drivers influencing vulnerability. Moreover, they permitted the assessment of spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability. Finally, the data allowed us to identify hotspots, areas in which the implementation of adaptation measures is most crucial. To validate the legitimacy of the results and to analyze the perception of people working in the sector, we compared outcomes with the results of an online survey we designed. It was carried out among 566 Swiss tourism stakeholders and asked them to evaluate the vulnerability of their particular region. Differences between the two methods appeared: the outcome of the survey indicated that those living mainly in the Prealpine regions perceived their regions as the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the outcomes of the geographic “hotspot” analysis showed that the mountainous regions, mostly in the Valais, Ticino, and Uri cantons, were the most vulnerable. Differences may be explained on one hand from the predisposition of stakeholders to be influenced by impacts already visible like snowpack reduction. Therefore, they might be more likely to identify the most vulnerable regions as the ones in which climate change is already affecting the tourism sector. On the other hand, dissimilarities also depend on the scores given by the 13 experts which weighted the various indicators used in the vulnerability map. In the second part of the thesis, we examined adaptation. We analyzed in particular which measures are already being implemented or have already been planned for the future. We also looked at how stakeholders evaluate the efficiency of these measures. Our analysis suggested that adaptation is already taking place in the country. Three categories of adaptation exist. These can be summarized as following: development of the supply, risk reduction, and communication on impacts and on implemented measures. The development of the supply can be seen b