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Rapport spécial du GIEC sur les scénarios d'émissions

Résumé

vignette|Prédictions sur le réchauffement climatique Le rapport spécial sur les scénarios d’émissions (en anglais Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) est un rapport publié en 2000 par le GIEC sur le réchauffement climatique. Tableau Les scénarios d’émissions du rapport spécial du GIEC sur les scénarios d’émissions : Notes et références Voir aussi Articles connexes

Rapports d'évaluation du GIEC
Sortie des combustibles fossiles

Liens externes

Rapports du GIEC

Catégorie:Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat

Source officielle

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapport_sp%C3%A9cial_du_GIEC_sur_les_sc%C3%A9narios_d'%C3%A9missions

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droite|vignette|Modèle de circulation générale GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model) développé par la NASA. Un modèle de circulation générale (en anglais, general circulation model ou GCM) es

Le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC, ou IPCC pour l'anglais Intergovernmental panel on climate change) est un organisme intergouvernemental chargé d'évaluer l'amp

Le (Fifth Assessment Report, AR5) du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC) des Nations unis est paru en 2014. Il sera suivi du sixième rapport d'évaluation en 2021.

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Growing population, consuming a large amount of energy such as combustion of fossil fuel, increasing pollutant emissions in the atmosphere are the threats to the sustainable development of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution causes the death of more than 2 million people per year in developing countries, and millions of people also suffer from various respiratory illnesses. Road traffic is the main source of air pollution in cities and there are large uncertainties associated to this source of pollution. Different models are available to quantify the amount of pollutants released by road traffic. However, these models always require a large amount of information and work, and thus their use results expensive. These limitations are difficult for the study and the management of air quality in cities from the developing world. Thus, it is extremely difficult to design efficient abatement strategies to reduce air pollution. For this reason, it is necessary to develop a new methodology for generating road traffic emissions to contribute to a better management of the urban air quality. The first aim of this PhD thesis is to develop and to validate a new model for generating road traffic emissions in several steps with different levels of complexity. The developed model is called EMISENS. Its main specifications are: (i) EMISENS is able to compute a total amount of emissions and to distribute it in time and in space using a methodology which combines the top-down and the bottom-up approaches; (ii) the model is able to compute the emissions and the uncertainties within a reasonable computing time and (iii) the model formulation is based on well referenced methodology (COPERT IV). The validation of EMISENS model was carried out by its application over Strasbourg, France. The results of EMISENS have been compared with the results of the more complete and complex model Circul'air which is currently used to manage the Strasbourg air quality. After comparing the results of the two models, it appeared that they are very close. This example of application illustrates the capacity of EMISENS to calculate road traffic emission inventory (EI) for cities in developed countries as well as in developing countries. Further on, a complete EI is carried out over Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) by applying an innovative methodology based on the application of the EMISENS model. HCMC is the largest city in Vietnam, it had more than 6 million inhabitants in 2006. It has more than three million vehicles and 28,500 factories in the city. High levels of air pollution are thus very often detected. The purpose of this part of the research consists in applying the EMISENS model to generate road traffic emissions. For the other emission sources, the top-down approach is used for generating the EI. The results show that the road traffic is the main emission source in the city. The motorcycles are responsible of the traffic emissions (94 % of CO, 68% of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC), 61 % of SO2 and 99 % of CH4). Two scenarios for reducing traffic emissions are evaluated to reduce the HCMC emissions for the year 2015 and 2020. In addition, two other scenarios are the Business as Usual scenarios for the year 2015 and 2020 are also studied to evaluate the traffic emissions in HCMC. The third part of this work consists in applying air quality models to the region of HCMC, the aim here is to study abatement strategies for emission reduction in the city. The results of the simulation show that the plume of O3 is developed in the north-western part of the city. These results are in good agreement with the measurements. Among the four previous emission scenarios, we chose only two reduction emission scenarios to study the effective abatement strategies for the year 2015 and 2020 in using air quality model. These two affective abatement strategies are adopted to help the local government to take decision for managing air quality in HCMC. The 100 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are run for estimating the uncertainty in the results of air quality simulations. The results of these two abatement strategies showed that if the local government follows the emission control plan: For 2015, the O3 concentration in 2015 will be similar to the present O3 concentration. For 2020, the O3 concentration in 2020 will decrease of around 10% to 30% of O3 in comparison to the actual level. However, the O3 concentration in 2020 is still higher than standard limit. The developed methodology for generating road traffic emissions offers several advantages. It is able to calculate a road traffic emission for both developing and developed countries. The calculation is divided in several steps with different level of complexity. Therefore, this methodology provides the new approach to manage air quality in cities.

EPFL2010

Chargement

Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

David Andrew Barry, Sylvain Coutu, Sébastien Kramer

Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today’s concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions. Consequently, the choice of a proper buildup/washoff model, with calibrated site-specific coefficients, is a major factor in modeling future runoff concentrations from contaminated urban surfaces.

2012

Chargement

Lessivage des polluants urbains et changement climatique : l’influence des modèles

David Andrew Barry, Sylvain Coutu, Sébastien Kramer, Luca Rossi

Rainfall for the next century will be influenced by global warming. These modified rainfalls will have influences on rainfall runoff. In order to analyze these impacts, this study compared different buildup and washoff functions with several future rainfall series. These series of rain were first simulated with the Bartlett-Lewis method to disrupt the distribution of rainfall events in winter and summer. Then, the delta factor method has been applied to modify the intensity of rainfall under different scenarios of emissions. Three emissions scenarios were tested (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and for each of these scenarios, three estimates of the results (2.5th, 50th and 97.5th percentiles) were considered depending on the chain of General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used. It was found that concentrations of leached pollutants are particularly susceptible to washoff functions and empirical parameters included in these functions. Disruption of rainfall also influences the leached concentrations in summer and winter. The emissions scenario has very little impact on levels instead of percentiles that play an important role in their distribution. The type of washoff function and the choice of GCMs and RCMs are important elements to evaluate the influence of climate change on pollutants washed into urban areas.

2012

Chargement

Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

David Andrew Barry, Sylvain Coutu, Sébastien Kramer

2012

EPFL2010