Publications associées à Disease outbreak

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing con ...

Nature Research2021

Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaks

Emanuele Massaro

Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service disruption, as well as ...

Nature Research2018

Localizing the Source of an Epidemic Using Few Observations

Brunella Marta Spinelli

Localizing the source of an epidemic is a crucial task in many contexts, including the detection of malicious users in social networks and the identification of patient zeros of disease outbreaks. The difficulty of this task lies in the strict limitation ...

EPFL2018

Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Flavio Finger

The spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility and the related fluctuations of population density are known to be key drivers of the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. These factors are particularly relevant in the case of mass gatherings, which may ...

National Academy of Sciences2016

Frequentist estimation of an epidemic's spreading potential when observations are scarce

Victor Panaretos, Andrea Kraus

We consider the problem of inferring the potential of an epidemic for escalating into a pandemic on the basis of limited observations in its initial stages. Classical results of Becker & Hasofer (J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 59, 415-29) illustrate that frequenti ...

Oxford University Press2014

Floquet theory for seasonal environmental forcing of spatially explicit waterborne epidemics

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

The transmission of waterborne pathogens is a complex process that is heavily linked to the spatial characteristics of the underlying environmental matrix as well as to the temporal variability of the relevant hydroclimatological drivers. In this work, we ...

Springer Heidelberg2014

Spatially Explicit Conditions for Waterborne Pathogen Invasion

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto

Waterborne pathogens cause many possibly lethal human diseases. We derive the condition for pathogen invasion and subsequent disease outbreak in a territory with specific, space-inhomogeneous characteristics (hydrological, ecological, demographic, and epid ...

Univ Chicago Press2013

Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto

Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit ...

Natl Acad Sciences2012

Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak

Andrea Rinaldo, Melanie Blokesch, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto

Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression of the current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, and for the redistribution among ...

American Geophysical Union2011