Claudio Grimaldi
Probabilistic arguments about the existence of technological life beyond Earth traditionally refer to the Drake equation to draw possible estimates of the number of technologically advanced civilizations releasing, either intentionally or not, electromagnetic emissions in the Milky Way. Here, we introduce other indicators than Drake's number N-D to develop a demography of artificial emissions populating the Galaxy. We focus on threemain categories of statistically independent signals (isotropic, narrow beams, and rotating beacons) to calculate the average number N-G of emission processes present in the Galaxy and the average number of them crossing Earth, (k) over bar, which is a quantity amenable to statistical estimation from direct observations. We show that (k) over bar coincides with ND only for isotropic emissions, while (k) over bar can be orders of magnitude smaller than ND in the case of highly directional signals. We further show that while ND gives the number of emissions being released at the present time, NG considers also the signals from no longer active emitters but whose emissions still occupy the Galaxy. We find that as long as the average longevity of the emissions is shorter than about 10(5) yr, N-G is fully determined by the rate of emissions alone, in contrast to N-D and (k) over bar which depend also on the emission longevity. Finally, using analytic formulas of N-G, N-D, and (k) over bar determined for each type of emission processes here considered, we provide a comprehensive overview of the values these quantities can possibly achieve as functions of the emission birthrates, longevities, and directionality.
OXFORD UNIV PRESS2021
