Publications associées à Nombre de reproduction de base

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Back-to-Africa introductions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the main cause of tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Jacques Fellay, Zhi Ming Xu

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC populat ...

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2023

Optimizing the mitigation of epidemic spreading through targeted adoption of contact tracing apps

Andrea Santoro

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive for a virus can help slow down an epidemi ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2022

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks

Gergely Odor

It is a fundamental question in disease modeling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. One important goal has been to find the seed configuration, which infects the most individuals. Although the id ...

2021

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R-eff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associ ...

Nature Research2021

A mathematical dashboard for the analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic data

Alfio Quarteroni, Luca Dede', Nicola Parolini

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at ) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our analysis provides an immediate appreciation of t ...

Wiley2021

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Marcel Salathé

Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing con ...

Nature Research2021

Flocking-enhanced social contagion

Ignacio Pagonabarraga Mora

Populations of mobile agents-animal groups, robot swarms, or crowds of people-self-organize into a large diversity of states as a result of information exchanges with their surroundings. While in many situations of interest the motion of the agents is driv ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2020