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Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...
Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, as the likelihood can become numerically unstable when data arise fro ...
We consider the problem of inferring the potential of an epidemic for escalating into a pandemic on the basis of limited observations in its initial stages. Classical results of Becker & Hasofer (J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 59, 415-29) illustrate that frequenti ...
Oxford University Press2014
This work is concerned with the estimation of the spreading potential of the disease in the initial stages of an epidemic. A speedy and accurate estimation is important for determining whether or not interventions are necessary to prevent a major outbreak. ...
EPFL2013
Magnetars(1) are young neutron stars with very strong magnetic fields of the order of 10(14)-10(15) G. They are detected in our Galaxy either as soft gamma-ray repeaters or anomalous X-ray pulsars. Soft gamma-ray repeaters are a rare type of gamma-ray tran ...